Micron Holds the Fate of Semiconductor Stocks After Chuseok, Could Trigger a New Rally for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix [Weekend Money]

Semiconductor Stocks to Be Shaped by Micron Earnings

There is a growing expectation that Micron's earnings, to be announced on September 30, will determine the direction of semiconductor stocks after Chuseok.

According to Daishin Securities, Micron, a US memory semiconductor company, is scheduled to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 30. As Micron's results precede those of Samsung Electronics or SK hynix, they are seen as a barometer for the industry. The market expects revenue to be around 52 billion dollars and earnings per share (EPS) to be between 32.5 and 33 dollars. However, in order to see a share price increase, the company would need to exceed these expectations with a significant earnings surprise.

Kyungmin Lee, a researcher at Daishin Securities, stated, "More important than Micron's immediate results is whether the next quarter's guidance can exceed the consensus estimate of 56.9 billion dollars and whether the company can maintain a margin of 86%. If Micron beats the consensus, it could serve as a trigger for a new rally."

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for August, also set to be released on the same day, is another key indicator. The headline PCE for August is expected to be 3.7%, while the core PCE is forecast at 3.4% year-on-year. Daishin Securities believes the probability of a higher-than-expected figure is low, as the financial services component, which added upward pressure in July, has now been revised.

Daishin Securities also noted that expectations for negotiations between the US and Iran remain unchanged. Lee commented, "Since mid-September, President Donald Trump's stance toward Iran has become noticeably different," adding, "As the probability of a blue sweep—where the Democratic Party takes both the House and Senate in the November 4 midterm elections—has surpassed 60%, there are moves to ease tensions with Iran." He explained, "Visible changes can be detected on several fronts, including direct talks with Iran, consultations with six Middle Eastern countries, and negotiations between China and Iran. Before the midterm elections, efforts are expected to be made to foster a peace mood with Iran, stabilize oil prices, and recover approval ratings."

Lee also emphasized, "The KOSPI is still trading at an extremely undervalued level, with a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (PER) ratio of 5.49 times." He added, "With excessive declines, undervalued sectors relative to earnings—such as IT hardware, semiconductors, retail distribution, shipbuilding, chemicals, defense, secondary batteries, and power equipment—are expected to lead valuation normalization."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.