Consumer Sentiment Rebounds After One Month: "Housing Price Outlook CSI Remains High Despite Government Measures"

September CCSI at 106.6, Up 2.1 Points
"Increased Expectations for Improved Income"
Household Income Outlook CSI Up 2 Points
Up 3 Points for Those in Their 40s, Up 4 Points for 4 Million Won Bracket
Housing Price Outlook CSI Holds at 1

The Consumer Composite Sentiment Index (CCSI) rebounded after one month. This turnaround is attributed to a narrowing of volatility in the domestic stock market and an improved outlook for real economic conditions, as well as growing expectations for better income circumstances.

September CCSI at 106.6...Up 2.1 Points From Previous Month

According to the "September 2026 Consumer Sentiment Survey Results" released by the Bank of Korea on September 23, this month’s CCSI recorded 106.6, up 2.1 points from the previous month. The CCSI is an index that comprehensively reflects consumers' perceptions of their economic situation. It is calculated using six key indicators that make up the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), such as current living conditions, household income outlook, and consumption expenditure outlook. The reference point is set at 100, which is the long-term average (from January 2003 to December 2025). When the CCSI is above 100, it is viewed as more optimistic than the long-term average, and below 100, more pessimistic.

The CCSI dipped below the 110 mark in March this year due to the impact of the Middle East war. In April, it fell further to 99.2 as energy supply disruptions, inflation, and concerns about an economic slowdown combined. Subsequently, as hopes for the end of the Middle East conflict revived and semiconductor exports continued to perform strongly, the CCSI improved for three consecutive months, only to slip back to the 104 range last month, before recovering to the 106 level again this month. Park Yongmin, team leader of the Economic Sentiment Survey Team in the Economic Statistics Department 1 at the Bank of Korea, commented, "In September, the improvement in consumer sentiment was driven by reduced volatility in the domestic stock market and rising expectations for better income conditions."

Household Income Outlook CSI, Up 4 Points for Households in the 4 Million Won Bracket

The Current Economic Assessment CSI (83) rose by 4 points from the previous month, as strong performances in exports and consumption fueled a positive real economy, and stock market volatility decreased. Last month, the KOSPI experienced heightened volatility and a market correction, worsening perceptions about the economic situation and causing the Current Economic Assessment CSI to drop to 79.

The Household Income Outlook CSI (102) increased by 2 points, reflecting higher expectations for income improvements linked to expanded economic growth. Park noted, "By age group, the household income outlook rose by 3 points among those in their 40s, by 2 points among those aged 70 and older, and by 1 point among those under 40. Overall, it showed an upward trend." He added, "Across income brackets, the index rose by 1 point for those earning less than 1 million won, by 2 points for those in the 1 million won bracket, by 4 points for those in the 4 million won bracket, and by 1 point for those earning 5 million won or more, generally showing increases across the board." The Wage Level Outlook CSI (124) rose by 1 point, significantly exceeding the long-term average (116). Park assessed, "In January 2018, when the minimum wage was raised sharply, the index was 126, so we are now at a comparably high and significant level."

The Interest Rate Level Outlook CSI (128) reached its highest point since October 2023 (128). Park explained, "This index reflects expected changes not only in the base rate, but also in lending rates and market interest rates for bonds and other instruments—overall, respondents expect that general interest rates will be higher six months from now compared to the present."

Despite Government Policies...Home Price Outlook CSI Remains Elevated

The Home Price Outlook CSI (125) continued at a high level compared to the previous month, as rising factors such as the sharp increase in metropolitan apartment prices were offset by factors likely to drive prices down, including government real estate policies and base rate hikes. The index remains considerably above the long-term average (107). Park said, "While some respondents cited government measures to cool the real estate market, housing price expectations remain high, mainly because the rise in home prices in the Seoul metropolitan area was particularly pronounced during the survey period." By region, Seoul recorded the highest score at 133, while the six major metropolitan cities and other areas were in the low 120s. However, Park noted that Seoul declined by 1 point from the previous month, while the six metropolitan areas increased by 1 point.

The one-year-ahead expected inflation rate (2.7%) remained unchanged from the previous month, as upward forces such as the rebound in international oil prices due to renewed Middle East conflict were counteracted by downward forces including expectations of continued monetary tightening and a drop in the won-dollar exchange rate. The expected inflation rates for three and five years ahead also remained at 2.6%, the same as the previous month.

This survey was conducted from September 9 to 16, covering 2,500 households across urban areas nationwide, with 2,226 households responding.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.