[North Korea-Russia New Artery]②Experts: "Russia Accelerates North Korean Economic Modernization"... Drone Weapons Transfer Poses Threat

Strengthening North Korea's Economic and Technological Capabilities Inspires Confidence
Likely to Impact Long-Term Strategies Toward South Korea and the World
Deployment of Troops for Compensation Kept Quiet
China Remains North Korea's Top Partner Despite Closer Russia Ties

Editor's NoteThe first road bridge connecting North Korea and Russia opened on the 7th of last month. The two-lane road, just about 1 km in length, spans the Tumen River. The name, as agreed upon by the two countries, is the "Yakov Novichenko Bridge." Until now, the only land route linking the two countries was the "Tumen River Friendship Bridge," a railway bridge that opened in 1959. While North Korea and Russia have promoted the new bridge as "economic infrastructure" for trade and tourism, experts believe that beyond economics, it could become a strategic corridor for the exchange of advanced technology and military supplies. With Russia pressed into a corner by the Ukraine war and North Korea stepping up to assist and reframe bilateral ties, observers predict that this new dynamic will soon be manifested on this very bridge.

“At present, North Korea appears to have little interest in engaging with the international community. However, this attitude might change in the future if North Korea becomes stronger and feels more comfortable with its position.”

Martin Williams, Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center in the United States, told The Asia Business Daily in an interview on the 30th that as close cooperation between North Korea and Russia, such as the opening of the "Yakov Novichenko Bridge," becomes prolonged, the ripple effects could expand beyond the military domain to include the economic, technological, and broader societal spheres. He assessed that if North Korea’s economic and technological capabilities grow thanks to cooperation with neighboring countries, this confidence could, in the long run, influence North Korea’s strategic approaches toward South Korea and the wider world.

Russia May Help Modernize North Korean Economy

Williams pointed out, “North Korea needs to modernize many sectors of its economy, and Russia can help in those areas. Russia could also provide new markets for certain North Korean products or IT services.” He emphasized that the emerging North Korea-Russia ties currently under international scrutiny could have a major impact not only in the military sector but also in non-military areas such as economics and technology.

For example, North Korea is currently pushing forward with large-scale modernization projects, including the development of Pyongyang, construction of rural housing, and its "20×10 Regional Development Policy." There have been an increasing number of hospitals and attempts to utilize IT for supply chain and business management. He cited sustainability as a key factor, observing, “In the past, North Korea frequently began large-scale new projects only for many of them to end in failure or stagnation.”

Alongside IT, "space development" was also highlighted as a key area of bilateral cooperation. Williams noted, “Russia has an advanced space program, and North Korea has been working for years to develop its own. I expect that collaboration is taking place in this area as well.”

North Korea's Advancing Military Technology Is a Major Threat to South Korean Security

On the 7th of this month, North Korean Premier Pak Taesong and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin participated via video link at the completion ceremony of the North Korea-Russia Tumen River Automobile Bridge. Photo by Yonhap News Agency from Korean Central TV.

Nazar Mykhun, a researcher at the Ukrainian human rights group Truth Hounds, cited real-world military experience, technology, and knowledge as the key assets North Korea is gaining through its partnership with Russia. Of greatest concern for South Korea and other regional countries, he said, is the expansion of North Korea’s technological capabilities. There is a risk that Russia could transfer technologies such as the “Geran” class kamikaze drones and upgraded FPV drone technologies currently used in the Ukraine war to North Korea.

Previously, after signing the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty" with Russia in 2024, North Korea dispatched personnel to the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. North Korea did not officially confirm the deployment was contingent on compensation, but this was reported by foreign and Ukrainian media. The Ukrainian outlet Kyiv Independent even described North Korea as "a cog in Russia’s machine."

Furthermore, there is speculation that Russia might provide North Korea with operational data collected from its use of North Korean ballistic missiles on the Ukrainian battlefield. Battle-tested flight and impact data could be used by North Korea to improve its own missile performance. Mykhun warned that such technological advances could pose greater security risks for surrounding countries, including South Korea. Williams also commented, “North Korea is gaining new insights into modern warfare,” identifying both drone technology and battlefield experience among North Korea’s strategic gains.

"Russia Cannot Replace China – North Korea's Top Partner Remains Unchanged"

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo by Yonhap News

The diminished monitoring ability of the international community was identified as a factor facilitating closer ties between North Korea and Russia. Since 2009, the United Nations Security Council Panel of Experts on North Korea Sanctions had tracked North Korea’s arms and petroleum deals and efforts to evade sanctions, but the panel ceased operations after Russia vetoed the extension of its mandate in 2024. In response, 11 countries, including South Korea, the United States, and Japan, launched a Multinational Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT), but as it operates outside the UN framework, its influence is seen as limited.

Mykhun noted that with the elimination of an official UN mechanism for recording North Korea-Russia transactions, the new road bridge – the Yakov Novichenko Bridge – could potentially be used for transporting weapons, petroleum, or other sanctioned goods. He stressed that the international community must continue to operate expert monitoring teams to consistently record abnormal exports and unusual movement of goods, and to track their end users.

However, despite closer North Korea-Russia ties, it is unlikely that Russia will overtake China as North Korea’s major partner. Williams explained, “China does not greatly need military or economic cooperation from North Korea, so North Korea doesn’t have a particularly strong negotiating card between the two countries.” He added, “Due to the overwhelming size and scope of its economy, China will remain North Korea’s largest partner for economics and trade.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.