[Weekend Money] Key Global Stock Market Events to Watch in October

In October, the global stock market's main focal points are expected to be the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy moves, third-quarter corporate earnings releases, and the initial public offering (IPO) of major artificial intelligence (AI) company Anthropic.

Kim Hwan, a research analyst at NH Investment & Securities, identified the key events likely to drive stock market movements in October as: ▲economic indicators and minutes related to monetary policy; ▲the third-quarter earnings season; and ▲the listing of Anthropic.

During the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Fed implemented an interest rate hike and hinted at the possibility of additional increases within the year. However, it is analyzed that the likelihood of continued, rapid rate hikes—enough to pressure the markets—is low.

Kim stated, “Unless the sharp upward trend in oil prices continues, the Fed is more likely to opt for one additional hike in December, rather than raise rates consecutively.” He also noted that, since the core inflation reading in August was affected by temporary factors such as higher telecommunications costs, a base effect could be expected in the September inflation data, reducing the probability of further sharp and sustained rate hikes from the Fed.

During the third-quarter earnings season, which begins in earnest in October, the performance of hyperscaler companies and the direction of their capital expenditure (CAPEX) guidance are seen as key variables. As there have recently been discussions in some quarters about moderating the pace of AI development, it will be important to confirm these companies’ willingness to invest through their earnings announcements.

Kim anticipates continued solid earnings improvements among companies. He commented, "For the third quarter, the earnings-per-share (EPS) forecasts for the S&P 500 and the tech sector are expected to have increased by 24% and more than 60%, respectively, compared to the same period last year."

The market is also paying close attention to the possibility of Anthropic’s listing on the Nasdaq as early as October.

In the current financial markets, Anthropic is showing robust fundamentals, having posted operating profits for two consecutive quarters. Its market capitalization after listing is expected to approach USD 2 trillion (approximately KRW 2,772 trillion). While a large initial public offering (IPO) could lead to a short-term supply and demand shock, analysis suggests that, based on past examples, such effects are likely to be only short-lived noise.

Kim concluded, “Anthropic’s Nasdaq listing is expected to serve as a catalyst for revived investment sentiment towards the AI software (SW) industry, which has recently shown signs of slowing down.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.