Victor Cha: "Possible Announcement of U.S. Investment Agreement During Cho Hyun's Visit"

"If Minister Cho Returns Without Any Announcement, It Would Be a Very Bad Sign"

Rubio Expected to Raise Coupang and Information and Communications Network Act Issues

There are expectations that an announcement related to South Korea's investment in the United States may be made in conjunction with the talks between Foreign Minister Cho Hyun and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

On September 17 (local time), Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said at a CSIS seminar, "I expect there will be some form of announcement during Minister Cho's stay in Washington, D.C."

Chair Cha noted that the announcement regarding a US investment project could be postponed until next week, but added, "The foreign minister's visit will serve as an action-forcing event that will accelerate the decision-making process."

He emphasized, "If no announcement is made during Minister Cho's stay here, it would be a very negative signal. From the moment Minister Cho arrives in Washington, D.C. until he leaves, both sides must reach some form of agreement."

Minister Cho arrived in the US on this day for talks with Secretary Rubio. The South Korea-US foreign ministers' meeting is scheduled to be held on the morning of the 18th.

Previously, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy had planned, after a report to the National Assembly, to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for the first project under a US investment valued at USD 200 billion (approximately KRW 272 trillion), and to announce the project as early as the 18th. However, having requested a delay in the reporting schedule to the National Assembly the previous day, there were predictions that the announcement could be postponed until after next week.

In materials introducing the CSIS event, the institution stated it expected the first investment projects under the South Korea-U.S. trade and investment agreement, totaling USD 350 billion, to be announced this week. The media mentioned as candidates for the announcement eight large nuclear power plants, a gas power generation project in Texas, and an Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, although a final decision has yet to be made.

Chair Cha also projected that so-called "commercial disputes" between South Korea and the US—including issues related to Coupang and revisions to the Information and Communications Network Act—could be discussed during this foreign ministers' meeting. "As far as I know, Secretary Rubio plans to raise some of these commercial disputes directly with Minister Cho," he said.

He went on to add, "There is a difference between Secretary Rubio simply raising the issue and saying 'President Donald Trump is displeased with this matter.' If President Trump’s stance is conveyed, this could exert considerable pressure on the Korean side."

Chair Cha stressed that these disputes do not necessarily have to be resolved solely through legal means, pointing to the possibility of a political solution. "In order to create space for a political resolution, the Korean side must understand that the president of the United States is strongly dissatisfied with this issue," he asserted.

He analyzed that if agreements are reached on broader issues such as US investment, there would be political room to handle disputes surrounding Coupang and the Information and Communications Network Act behind the scenes, rather than escalating them publicly.

Chair Cha also noted the timing of Minister Cho’s visit to the US. This is because there is ongoing discussion about whether South Korea will deploy troops to the Strait of Hormuz, the possibility of a North Korea-U.S. summit meeting, and the upcoming United Nations (UN) General Assembly where the leaders of South Korea and the US could meet.

He also mentioned the potential for progress on security issues, including cooperation in shipbuilding such as constructing warships, nuclear-powered submarines, and spent nuclear fuel enrichment and reprocessing, alongside the South Korea-U.S. trade agreement. There is speculation that the United States may offer corresponding measures in the security domain in conjunction with the announcement of South Korea’s US investment.

However, Chair Cha pointed out, "When such linkages are formed between different issues, the situation becomes very difficult to predict, because there is only one person who can make such decisions—President Trump." He added that if even one of the key issues makes progress, it "may open up room behind the scenes to resolve other tricky and complex issues."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.