[New York Stock Exchange] U.S. Long-Term Treasury Yields Hit Highest Since Financial Crisis... All Major Indices Fall

10-Year Yield Hits 5.04%, 30-Year at 5.40%

Highest Levels Since 2007

Global Oil Prices Continue Upward Trend

Rising Expectations for Fed Tightening

As U.S. long-term Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2007 and expectations for further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) grew, all three major indices on the New York Stock Exchange closed lower on September 15 (local time).

At the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 52,093.11, down 328.09 points, or 0.63%, from the previous trading day. The S&P 500, which focuses on large-cap stocks, lost 34.25 points, or 0.45%, ending at 7,585.73, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 204.84 points, or 0.78%, to close at 25,981.57.

Inside the New York Stock Exchange. New York, USA—Photo by Yoonju Hwang

The market saw a major retreat in risk appetite, triggered by rising yields on U.S. long-term Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note climbed as high as 5.04% during the session, marking the highest level since 2007. The 30-year yield soared to 5.40%, also surpassing its previous post-2007 high. Both the 10- and 30-year yields later gave up some gains, settling around 5.00%.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters ahead of a House Financial Services Committee hearing that the steep rise in yields was “due to global issues,” but this failed to stem the selloff in U.S. Treasuries.

The direct trigger for the surge in U.S. Treasury yields was international oil prices. When Saudi Arabia shut down a major oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, escalating fears of disruptions to crude transport, global oil prices jumped sharply.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for October delivery surged 4.38% from the previous session to $105.83 per barrel. Brent crude for November delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange also rose 2.90% to close at $108.75 per barrel. Both blends reached their highest prices since May 19, 2026.

With the war in Iran lasting longer than expected and international oil prices breaking above $100 per barrel—and showing persistent upward momentum—transportation costs and product prices are bound to rise. As concerns over prolonged inflation spread through the market, investors are now betting that the Fed will shift back to a tightening policy stance.

According to CME FedWatch, the federal funds futures market is pricing in a 92.7% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise the benchmark rate from its current 3.50–3.75% range to 3.75–4.00% at the upcoming meeting. Earlier this month, the odds stood around 40%, but within a matter of weeks, investors have come to view a rate hike as a near certainty. If realized, this would mark the first rate increase since 2023.

Melissa Brown, Global Head of Investment Decision Research at Simcorp, said, “Investors are finally starting to recognize these risks. U.S. government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, inflation remains persistently high, and oil has exceeded $100 per barrel—each of which is being closely watched by investors.”

Brown added, “The market wants at least some minimum guidance to understand the situation. While it would be reassuring if [Fed Governor] Waller said, ‘We are still concerned about inflation and will act accordingly,’ the problem is, he isn’t saying anything at all.”

In a report, Barclays noted that rate hikes are already exerting downward pressure on equity markets and increasingly putting stock portfolios at risk. It stated, “So far, strong earnings have offset the decline in share prices, but with 10-year Treasury yields approaching 5%, we are at a historically significant inflection point. If yields break through this level, rising rates tend to serve as a persistent headwind for stock markets.”

By individual stock performance: Nvidia rose 0.57%, Micron gained 0.39%, AMD increased 2.19%, and TSMC ended up 1.02%. Energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron closed up 2.57% and 2.64%, respectively. On the other hand, Intel decreased by 0.05%, and SK hynix ADR fell by 0.46%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.