Over Half of Seoul’s Rapid Integrated Planning Projects Delayed Until After 2030: "No Solution to Housing Supply Shortage"

Data Provided by Democratic Party Assemblyman O Ki-hyung of the National Assembly’s Strategy and Finance Committee
Actual Move-In Expected Around 2034–2035
Is the Supply Effect of Rapid Integrated Planning Overstated by a Factor of Four?

Concerns have been raised that over half of the housing units slated for groundbreaking under Seoul’s rapid integrated planning support program are concentrated in the period after 2030, meaning this policy will not immediately resolve the housing supply bottleneck in the Seoul metropolitan area. Given the time lag between groundbreaking and completion, it is expected that actual move-in ready housing will not be supplied until around 2034–2035.

Seoul Mayor Oh Sehoon (second from right) is touring the area around Seogye and Cheongpa-dong in Yongsan-gu, Seoul, where resident-selected private redevelopment projects such as rapid integrated planning redevelopment and Moa Town are underway, on the 11th of last month. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

According to “the 2031 housing supply plan” submitted by the Seoul Metropolitan Government to Assemblyman O Ki-hyung, ruling party whip of the National Assembly’s Budget and Economy Committee, the city targets groundbreaking for 28,776 units this year, 24,142 units in 2027, and 18,413 units in 2028.

In contrast, the figure jumps to 53,505 units in 2030 and 69,755 units in 2031. A total of 55.5% of all planned groundbreakings occur in 2030–2031, which is the latter half of the current term.

The Seoul Metropolitan Government’s report assumes an average time lag of about four years between groundbreaking and completion. For example, housing projects targeted to start in 2026 are slated for completion in 2030, those starting in 2027 will be ready in 2031, and those beginning in 2031 are expected to be completed in 2035. Even if all projects proceed as planned, the units breaking ground in 2030–2031 will not become available until 2034–2035.

O Ki-hyung, ruling party whip of the National Assembly's Budget and Economy Committee. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

While the city aims to supply about 310,000 new homes by 2031 through the rapid integrated planning program, an analysis suggests the actual increase in the housing stock in Seoul will be limited to only around 87,000 units.

An analysis of 253 project areas targeted by the program shows that there are currently 222,126 units, while the planned number of units after project completion is 309,500, resulting in a net increase of 87,374 units—substantially less than the 310,000 units cited by the city.

Notably, for 30 of the planned project areas, the number of housing units after development is expected to decrease compared to the current total. For instance, one project in Yongsan-gu will see units fall from 8,373 to 5,970—a decrease of 2,403 units. In Seodaemun-gu, the number of units will decrease from 3,735 to 2,320—a reduction of 1,415 units. One project in Seongbuk-gu will see a 62.5% drop, from 509 units to 191, and another in Nowon-gu decreases 58.9%, going from 864 to 355 units.

Assemblyman O emphasized, “While I agree with the overall direction to expand housing supply by speeding up redevelopment and reconstruction in Seoul, what truly matters to citizens is exactly how much supply actually increases and when they can actually move in.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.