Three Weeks to Brazil's Presidential Election: Lula vs. Bolsonaro in a Tight Race

Neck-and-neck Within the Margin of Error
Support Bases Stay Firm Despite a Series of Setbacks for Both Leading Candidates

With the Brazilian presidential election just three weeks away, the two leading candidates are locked in a neck-and-neck race. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from the ruling Workers' Party (PT), who was once seen as a safe bet for a fourth term, and opposition right-wing candidate Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are seeing their support rates fluctuate within the margin of error.

According to a recent poll jointly conducted and released on September 14 (local time) by investment bank BTG Pactual and polling agency FSB Pesquisa Nexus, President Lula secured 47% support in a hypothetical runoff scenario. Candidate Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) received 46%, with Lula holding a narrow lead within the margin of error.

On the 11th (local time) in Brasilia, Brazil, towels and hats featuring the faces of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is running in next month's presidential election, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (center) are being sold. Brasilia, Brazil = AFP Yonhap News Agency

In the previous survey carried out by the same institutions last week, President Lula had trailed behind Bolsonaro by 1 percentage point. However, within just seven days, the race has reversed again into a razor-thin contest within the margin of error.

On the other hand, a separate poll by the research firm Quest, announced on the same day, revealed a different picture. In their hypothetical runoff, Lula received only 40% support, while Bolsonaro led with 42%, putting Lula behind within the margin of error. In Quest's earlier poll on the 7th, both candidates were tied at 41%.

Despite a series of negative media reports affecting both candidates, the overall dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Bolsonaro has come under investigation after reports surfaced that he received large sums of money during the production of the film 'Dark Horse,' which centered on his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. President Lula, meanwhile, saw his support shaken by allegations of corruption involving his son, a Supreme Court scandal, and criticism over economic downturns.

As election day approaches, voter sentiment is quickly solidifying. In the Nexus poll, 83% of respondents who had chosen their first-round candidate said they had already made up their minds and would not change their selection by election day. This figure is 2 percentage points higher than in the previous survey (81%).

By candidate, 89% of Lula supporters and 86% of Bolsonaro supporters responded that their preferences were already set. Among core supporters, 93% of Lula voters and 90% of Bolsonaro voters indicated they would not change their minds before voting.

Given this context, it is highly likely that both candidates will advance through the first round and face each other again in the runoff. In the hypothetical first-round matchups conducted by both polling agencies, President Lula and Bolsonaro outpaced other candidates by more than 20 percentage points, firmly holding the first and second positions, respectively.

The Brazilian presidential election will hold its first round on October 4. If no candidate secures an absolute majority, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff election on October 25.

The Nexus survey was conducted between September 11 and 13 with 2,003 respondents, while the Quest survey was carried out from September 10 to 13 with 2,004 respondents. The margin of error for both polls is ±2 percentage points.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.