North Korea Increases Ballistic Missile Launches This Year [Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club]

Diversifying Tactics After Sending Troops to Ukraine
Adopting Mixed-Strike Tactics Including Drones

This year, North Korea is increasing the number of ballistic missile launches. In the past, North Korea targeted mainly South Korean Air Force bases and launched only ballistic missiles, but it is now expected to further increase the frequency of ballistic missile launches as it shifts to a strategy of mixed salvos, combining new short-range ballistic missiles, multiple rocket launchers, and drones.

According to the number of North Korean ballistic missile launches announced by the military authorities on September 15, there were 38 launches in 2022, 18 in 2023, 12 in 2024, and 6 last year, showing a decrease each year. Aside from regular training exercises with conventional strike weapons, there were no other notable exercises. However, North Korea's dispatch of troops to Ukraine has led to greater tactical diversity.

On the 12th, North Korea conducted another joint fire assault drill, mobilizing not only tactical nuclear weapons and conventional strike weapons but also drones. By employing "simultaneous, mixed salvos" of a wide variety of weapons, North Korea is reflecting lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war. This appears to be an attempt to demonstrate its capability to evade and strike South Korea’s air defense networks during wartime.

Photos released by North Korea on the 14th show what appear to be North Korea’s version of the Iskander (KN-23), super-large multiple rocket launchers (KN-25), Hwasal series strategic cruise missiles, and loitering munitions (suicide drones). While North Korea has previously conducted combined launches of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), cruise missiles, and multiple rocket launchers, it is unusual to include drones in such launches. This move appears to signal an intent to penetrate the South Korea-U.S. air defense network and strike strategically important areas at the outset of a conflict.

One notable aspect of this drill is the use of thermobaric weapons, which Russia has deployed in actual combat during its invasion of Ukraine. North Korea has also followed this method, loading thermobaric munitions onto the KN-25, a short-term, mass-destruction weapon, and launching them.

Experts believe North Korea will continue to increase the number of ballistic missile launches in order to refine its tactics of launching salvos with a diverse mix of weapons.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense Security Forum (KODEF), stated, “In the past, North Korea was expected to attack with fewer than 20 Scud missiles per target, such as our Air Force bases, but now, it is anticipated that, by deploying new short-range ballistic missiles, multiple rocket launchers, and drones, they will aim to paralyze South Korea’s air defense network and carry out target-elimination attacks with more than 20 projectiles per target.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.