Okinawa Voters Prioritize Economy: Conservative Wins for First Time in 12 Years, Defense Buildup to Accelerate

Genta Koza Wins, Defeats Denny Tamaki

In the Okinawa gubernatorial election held on September 13, the candidate backed by six parties, including the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), defeated the incumbent progressive governor. This marks the first time in about 12 years that a conservative-leaning candidate has won in Okinawa Prefecture, which has traditionally been a stronghold for the progressive camp. As a result, policies such as the relocation of the US Futenma Air Base to Henoko and the reinforcement of defense capabilities in the Nansei Islands are expected to move forward in earnest.

According to public broadcaster NHK on September 14, Genta Koza, a 42-year-old former deputy mayor of Naha, won the Okinawa gubernatorial election that was held and counted the previous day. This is the first time in 12 years since former governor Hirokazu Nakaima that a governor supported by the LDP administration will assume office in Okinawa. According to the Asahi Shimbun, Koza is also the first person born after Okinawa was returned to Japan from US administration in 1972 to become governor of the prefecture.

Although there were six candidates in the race, the contest was effectively narrowed down to Koza and incumbent governor Denny Tamaki, who was seeking a third term. Koza secured 423,124 votes, far outpacing Governor Tamaki, who received 276,060 votes, by approximately 147,000 votes. Voter turnout was 61.57%, up 3.65 percentage points from the previous election. This is the first time in the history of Okinawa gubernatorial elections that the winner has received more than 400,000 votes.

Genta Koja (center), the governor-elect of Okinawa Prefecture, is cheering with supporters on the 13th in Naha after hearing the news confirming his election victory. Naha, Japan = Photo by AFP The Yonhap News Agency.

Analysts point out that the decisive factor in this election was not the US base relocation issue, but rather livelihoods and the economy. In the past three elections, the biggest controversy was over whether to approve or oppose the relocation plan for the US Futenma Air Base from Ginowan to Henoko. Okinawa hosts a large portion of exclusive US military facilities, with persistent local concerns about noise and various accident risks. Notably, the return of Futenma Air Base, located in Ginowan City, was agreed upon by the US and Japanese governments in 1996, but due to Okinawa's opposition to the construction of the replacement Henoko base, the return has not materialized to date.

Governor Tamaki has consistently opposed relocating Futenma within Okinawa to Henoko, arguing that it merely shifts the burden to another region in the prefecture. Backed by the regional political coalition ‘All Okinawa,’ which centers its platform on opposition to the Henoko relocation, he was elected governor in both 2018 and 2022.

However, in this election, economic policies—including responses to rising prices and improving incomes—emerged as key issues over the base relocation question. According to an NHK exit poll conducted on election day, 49% of respondents said their highest expectation for the new governor was for economic measures to address inflation, and about 70% of those voters supported Koza.

During his campaign, Koza pledged to double per capita resident income within the next 10 years and to expand childcare support. Leveraging his background as a former official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, he also emphasized collaboration with the central government to drive regional economic growth. By contrast, Tamaki campaigned on achievements such as the introduction of free bus transportation for students and free school meals during his previous eight years in office.

In addition to economic policy, public opinion in Okinawa regarding the Henoko base relocation has also shifted. The NHK exit poll found 53% in support of accepting the Henoko relocation, compared to 47% opposed. In the previous election, 57% opposed the move, while 43% were in favor; the breakdown has now reversed.

Governor-elect Koza has accepted the Henoko relocation, describing it as “the most practical way to quickly eliminate the dangers associated with Futenma Air Base.” With the new governor set to take a cooperative stance toward central government policies—unlike Tamaki, who even took the government to court over the issue—relocation construction is expected to accelerate.

The reinforcement of defense capabilities in the Nansei Islands, including Okinawa, is also likely to gain further momentum. The Japanese government has declared its intent to strengthen defense posture in the Nansei Islands in light of tensions between China and Taiwan. The Asahi Shimbun predicts the government will seek cooperation from Okinawa Prefecture by engaging with Governor-elect Koza.

This election result is also expected to benefit Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration. During the campaign, executives from the LDP and Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) visited Okinawa to lend their support to Koza. Upon the election results, Prime Minister Takaichi commented, “This election reflects the aspirations of Okinawa residents for economic growth,” adding, “I will work with the new governor to strengthen the Okinawa economy.”

NHK reported that there is now a sentiment within the government that central and prefectural authorities can proceed in tandem on security policy. Quoting a senior LDP official, the broadcaster said, “Until now, the central government and the prefectural government have been at odds, but going forward, they will closely discuss and coordinate on a range of policies.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.