[US Midterm Election D-40]① The Party That Claims the Senate Decides Trump's Political Fate

Democrats Expected to Lead in the House
Presidential Grip Remains if Republicans Hold Senate
Republicans May Rally Supporters in Final Stretch
Midterms to Affect Broad Economic Policy: Tariffs, Investment, and the Fed

'Will the Democrats retake the Senate, or will the Republicans defend their majority?'

The most closely watched point in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November is which party will secure control of the Senate. Whether the Democrats manage to seize both the House and the Senate, or the Republicans are able to hold on to the Senate, will critically impact the political fate of U.S. President Donald Trump.

This midterm election carries extra significance, as it serves as a public evaluation of the sitting president's administration. There will be a comprehensive assessment of the policies pursued by the second Trump administration, such as the introduction of tariffs, protection of domestic manufacturing, the expansion of foreign investment in the U.S., the fostering of the semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) industries, and a broad range of immigration, foreign, and security policies.

Democrats Favored in the House... Will the Gap Widen Among Likely Voters?

Within U.S. political circles and polling institutions, the consensus is that Democrats are currently favored to win the House. If this forecast proves accurate and the Democrats retake the House, they will be able to keep the Trump administration in check through legislation, the budget process, and congressional hearings.

The New York Times recently reported, based on analysis by multiple pollsters and political analysts, that the Democrats have consistently outpaced the Republicans in nationwide congressional preference polls throughout the summer. Data analyst Charlotte Swasey noted that the Democratic lead has recently widened to about 6.7 percentage points. If this gap holds until the actual election, Democrats could secure approximately 222 seats in the House.

However, there is still a chance that the Republicans will succeed in rallying their base during the final stretch. Patrick Ruffini, a polling expert at Echelon Insights, told the New York Times that in midterm elections, the turnout of each party’s base—rather than persuading undecided voters—plays a more decisive role. While Democrats had maintained a double-digit advantage in enthusiasm since last year, the gap has recently narrowed to about 4 percentage points.

Even if the Republicans lose the House but retain control of the Senate in this election, President Trump will be able to maintain a certain level of executive power through appointments and confirmations. He would function as an "administrative president," allowing him to pursue his core policies.

If Both the House and Senate Are Taken, Trump Will Face Broad Constraints in Governing

United States Capitol. Washington D.C. (USA) - Photo by Yoonju Hwang

The most challenging scenario for President Trump would be if the Democrats manage to secure control of both the House and the Senate. In such a case, legislation and the budget would be controlled in the House, while appointments and confirmations would face obstacles in the Senate. The Senate holds the authority to confirm high-ranking government officials and federal judges.

If President Trump attempted to replace senior officials in various departments or pursue appointments to the judiciary in the latter part of his term, the Democrats could block these moves or demand significant concessions. This would bind President Trump's hands, severely weakening his grasp on the administration and bringing about an early lame duck period. This is why the outcome in the Senate is considered the key variable that could determine the political survival of President Trump even more than the House results.

However, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has reported that, while the chances of Democrats reclaiming the House have increased, the Senate still remains relatively favorable for the Republicans. If the WSJ forecast is correct and the Democrats take the House but the Republicans hold the Senate, the Democratic Party’s ability to pursue legislative initiatives would be limited.

Election Results Will Also Affect Economic Policy: Tariffs, Investment, the Fed, and More

The midterm election results are expected to also impact a wide range of economic policies from the Trump administration. In particular, congressional oversight regarding trade and industrial policies that affect Korea could intensify or ease, depending on the outcome.

Since the start of his second term, President Trump has simultaneously pursued high tariffs and increased domestic production and has pushed to attract foreign direct investment in strategic industries such as semiconductors and AI, accelerating the restructuring of supply chains.

In particular, the results could influence the direction of the benchmark interest rate. As President Trump has publicly pressured for an interest rate cut, should his political influence wane after the midterms, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may face relatively less political pressure when determining monetary policy.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.