Corporate Tax Revenue to Exceed 200 Trillion Won Next Year on 'Samsung-SK Hynix' Effect, Overtaking Income Tax for First Time in 15 Years
Concerns Grow Over Volatile Tax Revenue Amid Heavy Reliance on Semiconductors
Government Seeks Fiscal Stability Through Future Response Fund
Next year, corporate tax revenue is projected to surpass 200 trillion won for the first time in history, driven by a boom in the semiconductor sector. This means it will outpace income tax revenue for the first time in 15 years. However, concerns are being raised that, due to Korea's structural dependence on semiconductor exports, tax revenues could become highly volatile. The government has announced plans to establish a Future Response Fund to ensure fiscal stability.
According to the national tax revenue budget by the Ministry of Economy and Finance on September 14, next year's corporate tax revenue is expected to reach 216.7 trillion won. This amount exceeds the expected income tax revenue (180 trillion won) by 36.7 trillion won. The projected increase is attributed to a sharp rise in the operating profits of semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix during the semiconductor boom. It is the first time in 15 years, since 2012, that corporate tax revenue will exceed income tax revenue. Back in 2012, corporate tax revenue was 45.9 trillion won, narrowly surpassing income tax revenue at 45.8 trillion won.
Corporate tax revenue increased from 70.4 trillion won in 2021 to 103.6 trillion won in 2022. However, as the semiconductor industry slumped, it sharply declined to 80.4 trillion won in 2023 and 62.5 trillion won in 2024. This period saw significant revenue shortfalls due to a significant deviation in tax revenue forecasts. After rebounding to 84.6 trillion won in 2025 and 101.3 trillion won so far this year (based on the supplementary budget), next year’s figure is forecast to more than double to 216.7 trillion won. Surpassing the 200 trillion won mark would be unprecedented.
While corporate tax revenue has swung between the 40 trillion won and 200 trillion won ranges depending on economic cycles, income tax revenue has shown steady and continuous growth, supported by factors such as inflation, an increase in employment, and rising asset prices. It has risen from the 40 trillion won level in 2012 to over 100 trillion won in 2021; in 2025, it is forecast to reach 130.5 trillion won, and, as of this year’s supplementary budget, 136.8 trillion won. The projection for next year stands at 180 trillion won.
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Korea’s economic structure, which relies heavily on semiconductors for both exports and overall growth, means tax revenue is highly sensitive to the industry’s performance. The government is planning to use the newly established Future Response Fund as a fiscal stabilization tool. Taeseok Lee, Head of Fiscal and Social Policy Research at the Korea Development Institute (KDI), stated at a forum on September 11, "Through the Future Response Fund, we can protect planned multi-year investments from the impact of tax revenue fluctuations, and mitigate the risk of having to sharply reduce spending or drastically increase government bond issuances during crises."
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