Cracks in Samsung and SK hynix’s Duopoly?... Micron’s Bet with the ‘100,000 HBM Wafers’ Bomb [ChipTalk]

HBM Production Capacity Doubled in Just Over a Year
Micron Ramps Up Pursuit of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics
HBM4 12-Stack Share Expected to Hit Up to 50%

Micron, the U.S. semiconductor company, is aiming to ramp up its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production capacity to 100,000 wafers per month by the end of this year. This aggressive expansion nearly doubles its production capability from last year's 40,000 to 50,000 wafers per month in a short period. With the AI semiconductor market experiencing explosive growth and HBM supply shortages persisting, Micron plans to accelerate its pursuit of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix by strengthening its production capacity.

Changes in the competitive landscape of the HBM market are also expected. Currently, SK hynix leads the market, followed by Samsung Electronics, with Micron trailing as a challenger. However, if Micron raises its production capacity to 100,000 wafers per month and rapidly increases the proportion of next-generation HBM4 (6th generation high-bandwidth memory), there are projections that a full-fledged "three-way competition" could emerge in this market dominated by Korean companies.

According to industry sources on September 14, Micron plans to expand its HBM production capacity to 100,000 wafers per month by the end of this year. Compared to last year’s 40,000 to 50,000 wafers per month, this represents a significant increase, with the company pushing forward to add up to 60,000 wafers of HBM production capacity by year-end.

Micron's aggressive move to boost HBM production is driven by the explosive growth of the AI data center market. The company is already building a strong presence in the next-generation HBM4 category. In March, Micron announced that it had begun mass production and shipping of the 12-stack, 36GB HBM4 for the Vera Rubin project. It has also supplied customers with samples of a 16-stack, 48GB HBM4.

As Micron expands both its production capacity and its HBM4 supply, the market structure—previously dominated by Korean companies—is likely to shift. According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, SK hynix maintained its top position in the global HBM market in the second quarter of this year with a 50% revenue share. Samsung Electronics significantly increased its share from 21% in the first quarter to 33% in the second quarter. Micron, in third place, saw its market share fall slightly from 21% in the previous quarter to 18%.

If Micron’s expansion proceeds as planned, the gap in production capacity could close rapidly. However, increasing HBM market share is not determined solely by boosting wafer input.

Because HBM relies on stacking multiple DRAM chips vertically, factors such as yield, stacking technology, heat and power efficiency, and product reliability are all critically important. Moreover, Micron must obtain quality certifications from major customers such as NVIDIA to increase actual supply volumes. Even if production capacity is secured, it is unlikely to translate into higher market share if the company cannot consistently supply customers with reliable products.

Currently, most of Micron’s HBM production consists of HBM3E (5th generation high-bandwidth memory) 12-stack products. However, this year, the company is rapidly ramping up HBM4 production. Industry experts estimate that the share of HBM4 12-stack products in Micron's total HBM output, which was about 20–30% at the beginning of this year, could reach up to 50% by year-end.

With persistent demand for AI memory, if Micron can quickly scale up its actual supply, experts predict that the HBM market may move away from competition centered solely on the two Korean memory giants and enter a true three-way rivalry.

Particularly noteworthy is the rising importance of supply stability in the AI semiconductor market. For AI accelerator companies, excessive reliance on a single memory supplier increases the risk of supply disruptions.

As a result, if major customers seek to diversify their HBM suppliers, Micron’s expansion could become a key foundation for growing its market share. In practice, big tech firms like NVIDIA are already diversifying HBM suppliers to address memory bottleneck concerns.

Micron’s 100,000 wafer per month target represents a doubling of its capacity compared to last year, yet it still falls short of catching up to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix in one leap. Industry estimates place Samsung Electronics and SK hynix’s HBM production capacities at around 150,000 to 200,000 wafers per month respectively. Even if Micron expends to 100,000 wafers per month, there remains a significant production gap with these two companies.

An industry official commented, “In the HBM market, simply expanding production capacity does not directly translate into higher sales. What matters most is the ability to consistently supply products that meet customers’ requirements for yield and quality. If Micron not only expands its capacity but also stabilizes HBM4 supply, the three-way competition among SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron could become a reality.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.