"If Home Prices Continue Rising Like This... I Will Stop Commenting" Even the Real Estate Expert Personally Tapped by President Lee Has Turned Critical

"Kwangsoo Lee, Housing Price Bear, Criticizes Real Estate Policy"
Presents Money Supply, Interest Rates, and Supply as Grounds on Maebul Show
Following Sangwook Chae and Moondo Han, More Pro-Government Experts Depart

Kwangsoo Lee, CEO of Kwangsune Bokdeokbang who has long advocated the theory of declining home prices, criticized the real estate policies of the government and ruling party, announcing that he would refrain from making further real estate comments.

Kwangsoo Lee, CEO of Kwangsune Bokdeokbang, criticized the real estate policies of the government and ruling party. Youtube Maebulsyo

During his appearance on the YouTube channel 'Choiwook's Maebulsyo' on September 7, Lee stated, "If South Korea continues down the current path, a real estate price surge could occur." He is well-known for his years of projecting falling home prices, and during the National Real Estate Policy Debate held in July, President Lee Jaemyung directly referred to him, saying, "Even if you are personally invested, it's okay. I watch Mr. Kwangsoo Lee's videos often. Could you give us your critical feedback, Mr. Lee?" On September 1, Lee was also invited by the Democratic Party to give a lecture on real estate to around 20 party members.

However, on the broadcast, Lee delivered harsh criticism, saying, "The attitude of the Democratic Party and the government is dangerously complacent." He warned, "If things continue as they are, home prices will continue to rise, the real estate market will grow more unstable, and this will come to dominate the whole situation." Regarding government policy, he commented, "They're just saying, 'We'll increase housing supply in the long run,'" and added, "It's like saying we should farm rice fields when there's a war going on right now."

Money supply, interest rates, and supply... Three factors behind soaring home prices

Lee presented several charts to support his arguments. The first was money supply. Citing Bank of Korea data, Lee explained that the holdings of M2 (broad money supply) are trending upward, claiming "money supply is a gravitational force that compels real estate prices to keep rising." He elaborated, "As the amount of money increases, the price of money falls and the prices of goods naturally rise." According to Bank of Korea statistics, the M2 amounted to 4,209 trillion won as of June.

The second factor is interest rates. Previously, President Lee wrote on his social media platform X (formerly Twitter) on August 30, "The government has been instructed to prepare a system for purchasing mass amounts of homes below a certain value for public housing purposes in case home prices tumble due to early large-scale supply, suppression of speculative demand, high interest rates causing loan defaults, and a surge of homes in foreclosure auctions." He added, "Those interested in real estate speculation should pay close attention to media reports that the Bank of Korea's interest rate is expected to be 3.5% in the first quarter of next year." The Bank of Korea raised its base rate from 2.50% to 2.75% per annum in July, then to 3.00% in August, marking two consecutive monthly hikes.

Lee responded by calling this view "extremely complacent." He said, "Even when interest rates go up, inflation rises even faster, so the real interest rate is negative. Higher rates have no effect; instead, people are now encouraged to get loans and buy houses."

The third factor is supply. Lee displayed a graph of new apartment completions in the Seoul metropolitan area, pointing out, "Apartment supply in the Seoul metropolitan area continues to fall, which puts pressure on rental prices and leads to increased demand by people taking loans to buy homes." He predicted, "This situation will persist until 2028. If nothing is done, the market will simply be left exposed to these conditions." According to data recently released by the Korea Real Estate Board and Real Estate 114, the number of apartment completions scheduled for Seoul in the second half of this year is 18,994 units, 22,428 units in 2027, and 8,246 units in the first half of 2028.

"I will stop commenting on real estate"... A wave of resignations among previously supportive experts

When host Choiwook asked, "So will you just stand by and watch?" and pressed for alternatives, Lee replied, "I'm too exhausted. I'm hurting. I've decided not to talk about real estate anymore." He added, "Talking about this issue pains me. From now on, I’ll only discuss rising semiconductor stocks."

President Lee Jae-myung listens to participants' remarks at the National Real Estate Policy Debate held on July 23 at the KBS annex in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News

The real estate industry has noted a growing trend of previously government-friendly experts turning critical. Changwook Chae, CEO of Connected Ground, said last May, "Many people may wonder, 'Why is a pro-government spokesperson talking like this?' but if the administration continues to fail to present effective rent and sales stabilization policies for over a year, there's no reason to remain supportive." Professor Han Mundo of the Department of Real Estate at Seoul Digital University commented after the July debate, "I had high hopes for President Lee, but his team has completely lost its way. At this rate, this will be even worse than the 'Moon Jae-in Season 2' period."

Meanwhile, last month the government announced a plan to supply an additional 230,000 new homes in the Seoul metropolitan area, including 100,000 on new sites, aiming to break ground on 1.35 million homes over five years. Later this month, a comprehensive set of measures is expected, including adjustments to property holding taxes focused on home value and changes to loan regulations for genuine homebuyers.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.