"If Home Prices Continue Rising Like This... I Will Stop Commenting" Even the Real Estate Expert Personally Tapped by President Lee Has Turned Critical

"Kwangsoo Lee, Housing Price Bear, Criticizes Real Estate Policy"
Presents Money Supply, Interest Rates, and Supply as Grounds on Maebul Show
Following Sangwook Chae and Moondo Han, More Pro-Government Experts Depart

Lee Kwangsoo, CEO of Kwangsune Bokdeokbang, known for advocating the theory of falling housing prices, has announced that he will refrain from making further real estate comments, while criticizing the real estate policies of the government and ruling party.

Kwangsoo Lee, CEO of Kwangsune Bokdeokbang, criticized the real estate policies of the government and ruling party. Youtube Maebulsyo

Appearing on the YouTube channel 'Choi Wook's Maebulsyo' on September 7, Lee said, "If things continue as they are in Korea, there could be a surge in real estate prices." Lee is well-known for predicting declines in housing prices for many years, and was directly pointed out by President Lee Jaemyung at the National Real Estate Policy Debate held in July. At that event, President Lee said, "Would it be okay to show some personal opinions? I watch Mr. Lee Kwangsoo's videos a lot, so can Mr. Lee make a comment?" On September 1, Lee also delivered a real estate lecture to about 20 lawmakers from the Democratic Party at the invitation of the party.

However, on this broadcast, Lee strongly criticized the situation, saying, "The attitude of both the Democratic Party and the government is extremely complacent. If things continue like this, housing prices will keep rising, leading to chaos in the real estate market, and that will become impossible to control." Regarding the government’s countermeasures, he said, "They're just saying, 'We'll increase housing supply in the long run,' but that's like talking about farming in the fields during a war."

Currency Supply·Interest Rates·Supply: Three Reasons for Housing Price Surge

Lee presented graphs to show the basis for his opinion. The first factor is the currency supply. Referring to data from the Bank of Korea that shows the M2 (broad money supply) continuing to rise, Lee said, "Currency supply acts as gravity that inevitably keeps pushing real estate prices up." He added, "As money increases, its value falls, and the prices of goods must rise." According to the Bank of Korea, M2 totaled around 4,209 trillion won as of June.

The second factor is the interest rate. Previously, on July 30, President Lee wrote on his social media platform X (formerly Twitter), "The government has instructed officials to prepare a system to purchase large amounts of homes below a certain threshold for public housing, in case housing prices plummet due to early large-scale housing supply, suppression of speculative demand, and a surge in loan delinquencies and auctions resulting from high interest rates." He also said, "Those interested in real estate speculation should pay particular attention to media reports predicting the Bank of Korea base rate to be 3.5% in the first quarter of next year." The Bank of Korea raised the base rate from 2.50% to 2.75% per annum in July, and then to 3.00% in August, marking two consecutive months of hikes.

Lee criticized this as "a very complacent idea." He argued, "Even if interest rates rise, inflation is rising even faster, so the real interest rate is negative. Higher interest rates do not have any real effect, and people are still taking out loans to buy homes."

The third factor is supply. Showing a graph of new apartment supply trends in the Seoul metropolitan area, Lee explained, "The number of new apartments being supplied in the metropolitan area keeps falling. This is putting upward pressure on rent and lease prices and causing more people to decide to 'get loans and buy a home.'" He added, "This situation will continue until 2028, and if nothing is done, the market will remain exposed to these conditions." According to data released last month by Korea Real Estate Board and Real Estate 114, the number of planned housing units in Seoul is 18,994 for the second half of this year, 22,428 for 2027, and 8,246 for the first half of 2028.

"No More Real Estate Talk"... Expert Defections Continue

When the host, Choi Wook, asked, "So, are you just going to watch this happen?" and pressed for an alternative, Lee replied, "It's too hard for me. I'm suffering. I've decided not to talk about real estate anymore." He added, "Talking about this is painful. I'll just comment on rising semiconductor stocks from now on."

President Lee Jae-myung listens to participants' remarks at the National Real Estate Policy Debate held on July 23 at the KBS annex in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News

In the real estate sector, it is being observed that experts who have previously been friendly to the government’s policies are now turning to criticism one after another. Sangwook Chae, CEO of ConnectedGround, remarked in May, "Some might ask, ‘What’s wrong with the pro-government spokesperson?’ but if the government continues to fail to present proper stabilization measures for monthly rent, deposits, and sales for over a year, then not being pro-government is the right stance." Professor Han Mundo of Seoul Digital University’s Department of Real Estate also commented after the National Real Estate Policy Debate in July, "I had high hopes for President Lee, but it seems the president’s team has completely lost its way. At this rate, it will be even worse than the so-called Moon Jae-in Season 2."

Meanwhile, last month the government introduced a new plan to increase housing supply in the Seoul metropolitan area. The plan aims to begin construction of 1.35 million housing units over five years, with an additional 230,000 homes set to be supplied, including 100,000 in new development zones. Later this month, the government is expected to announce a comprehensive policy package, including restructuring of property holding taxes focused on housing value and adjustments to mortgage regulations for real demand buyers.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.