[Blue House’s Game Changer]② The Greatest Threat Lies Within the ‘Shaky Support Base’... The Key Is Restoring Trust

Internal Discord Persists Among Supporters Even After August 17 Party Convention

'Structural Majority' Vision Grows Elusive—Presidential Office Concedes "1-1=0"

Original Intent of Constitutional Reform and Special Prosecutor Overshadowed by

Editor's NotePresident Lee Jae-myung's administration stands at a crossroads. From the aftershocks of the cabinet reshuffle to issues such as constitutional amendment for re-election, dismissal of public prosecution, and the deployment of troops to the Strait of Hormuz, a string of thorny challenges is shaking the momentum of state affairs. As the politics of pragmatism and unity face a crucial test, this two-part series will explore how he might unravel the current political impasse.

The recent turmoil surrounding President Lee Jae-myung's administration is not limited to a series of isolated setbacks. It is significant that key issues are increasingly focusing on the president's own intentions and decisions, massively amplifying the political pressure he faces. The proposal to amend the constitution for power decentralization has shifted into a dispute over "re-election constitutional amendment," while the push for a special investigation to address allegations of politically motivated prosecution has turned into controversy over the "dismissal of public prosecution" in President Lee's own case. Some point to a "crisis of trust." Additional difficulties have arisen, including controversies over vetting cabinet nominees following the second round of appointments, as well as the issue of deploying troops to the Strait of Hormuz.

On the 4th, the day after the 21st presidential election, Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, visited the stage set up in front of the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, as his victory became certain, greeting with his wife Kim Hyekyung before delivering his victory acceptance speech. 2025.6.4 Photo by Kim Hyunmin

In this situation, the top priority for the presidential office is the possibility of cracks in its support base. There were expectations that, once the Democratic Party of Korea’s national convention on August 17 concluded, much of the conflict sparked by internal competition would subside. However, the presidential office's assessment is that these expectations have not been met. An increasing divide between the pro-Lee Jae-myung and pro-Moon Jae-in factions is spilling over onto YouTube and other online platforms, further deepening emotional rifts despite the convention’s conclusion.

This perception is further reflected in chief political affairs secretary Hong Ikpyo’s remarks on the September 8 broadcast of "Kim Eo-jun's Humility Is Strength News Factory" on YouTube, where he directly addressed the split within the support base by dividing the causes of falling approval ratings into "political," "policy," and "attitude" factors. The assessment is that, in addition to policy controversies such as real estate and the stock market, the ruling party, government, and presidential office must also reconsider how they relate to both their supporters and the public. Communications chief Sung Gihong, appearing on the YouTube show "Maebul Show" the previous day, remarked, "We are taking these internal conflicts very seriously," and added, "We believe this is not unrelated to the continuing decline in the president’s approval rating."

Meanwhile, President Lee's proposal for a "structural majority" seems increasingly out of reach. The strategy is to create a stable majority by expanding from the existing liberal and progressive base to include centrists and pragmatic conservatives. However, if the loss of existing supporters is filled merely by acquiring a new group, this cannot truly be seen as broadening the base. It is in this context that Hong commented, "If you lose one and gain one, it's plus-minus zero."

Debates Over 'Re-election Amendment' and 'Dismissal of Public Prosecution,' Personnel System Under Fire...Questions of Trust Emerge

The constitutional amendment for re-election controversy is a prime example of the challenges President Lee faces. His effort to revise the constitution originated with proposals to enshrine the May 18 Gwangju Democratization Movement and the Busan-Masan Democracy Protests in the preamble, and to disperse presidential power. Yet, as a four-year double-term or re-election system became part of the discussion of power structure reform, the debate—regardless of political faction—pivoted from "what kind of power structure is desirable" to "is President Lee planning to run again," thus becoming a question of trust. From the president's point of view, he may feel there is no reason to explicitly declare he won’t do something that is legally impossible and not contemplated. However, politically, if he does not draw a clear line, suspicions may continue to recur. During a meeting with Koreans residing in Paris on September 9 (local time), President Lee only commented, when stressing the need for active top-level diplomacy early in his term, that “my term is clearly limited under the constitution.”

The push for a special investigation into allegedly fabricated prosecutions has followed a similar path. The original intent was to determine whether, during Yoon Suk Yeol’s government, political motives led to investigations and prosecutions directed at figures from the Lee and Moon Jae-in administrations. However, as some members of the ruling bloc grew vocal about demanding the dismissal of public prosecution in President Lee's case, the issue shifted from "was there a fabricated prosecution" to "are they trying to end the president's trial." The presidential office has repeatedly explained that establishing whether there was fabrication should come before any discussion of prosecution dismissal. Yet, the ability to clearly separate the public interest in uncovering fabricated prosecution from the president’s own legal matters has become a critical point of scrutiny.

Compounding this, allegations of influence peddling for new drug development surrounding Justice Minister nominee Kim Seungwon and controversies over Gender Equality and Family Minister nominee Yong Hyein's dual status as both proportional representation lawmaker and minister have grown into questions about the personnel system at the presidential office itself. Although candidates went through recommendations by the personnel chief, vetting by the senior secretary for civil affairs, and political assessment by the chief political affairs secretary, the consensus is that these processes failed to fundamentally filter out public discontent over issues of fairness. The presidential office has responded by reaffirming that candidates were nominated via the proper channels and will undergo parliamentary confirmation, while also announcing plans to strengthen the personnel screening system—an apparent attempt at damage control in the face of mounting criticism. However, such efforts have proven insufficient so far.

Minister of Gender Equality and Family Nominee Yong Hyein is arriving at the confirmation hearing preparation office set up in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul on September 7, 2026. Photo by Hyunmin Kim

The Inevitable Backlash From Supporters Over Hormuz Deployment... Trust Recovery Remains Crucial

The potential deployment of troops to the Strait of Hormuz, now a top economic and security concern, looms as a determinant of the administration's remaining term. Some analyses maintain that, given the significance of the South Korea-US alliance and the gravity of economic and security issues, Korea cannot afford to ignore US requests for deployment. However, any increase in the level of military contribution would entail not only deterioration in relations with Iran but also risk to the energy supply chain, in addition to expected backlash from the administration's progressive support base.

Opinions within the government remain divided. According to one official, "There is one view that a quick decision is needed, and another that we should take time to build justification by persuading both the US and our supporters." For now, the prevailing opinion is that, rather than directly participating in US-led military actions or completely abstaining, the most practical option would be a multilateral approach that contributes to freedom of navigation and the security of the strait.

The common thread across these challenges is that, to restore trust in the administration’s direction, it is just as important for President Lee to clearly state "what will not be done" as well as "what will be done." This is why the presidential office is reportedly considering options for direct communication by President Lee through press conferences or media interviews.

A government insider suggested, "It has become clear that the efforts of advisors alone have their limits," and added, "For political problems that can only be resolved by clarifying the president’s intentions, there are growing calls both inside and outside the party for the president to explain these issues in his own words." President Lee is scheduled to return home on September 10 following his state visit to France.

President Lee Jae-myung and First Lady Kim Hye-kyung, having completed their state visit to France, are moving to Air Force One at Paris Orly Airport on the 9th (local time). 2026.9.10 Yonhap News Agency

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.