[Good Morning Market] Market Movers for the Week: U.S. CPI, Oracle Earnings, and More

This Week's KOSPI Range Projected at 6,400–7,050
Strong U.S. Employment Data Has Limited Impact on the Market
Focus Shifts to U.S. CPI for Clues on Rate Direction

This week, the domestic stock market is expected to be influenced by inflation indicators such as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, as well as earnings reports from U.S. tech companies like Oracle. The anticipated weekly KOSPI range is projected to be between 6,400 and 7,050.

On the 4th, the KOSPI index opened at 6654.36, up 74.88 points from the previous trading day. The status of the domestic stock market was displayed on the electronic board in the dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. September 4, 2026. Photo by Jin-Hyung Kang

On the 4th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,414.25, down 271.86 points (0.51%) from the previous trading day. The S&P 500 declined by 29.11 points (0.38%) to 7,718.60, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell by 77.07 points (0.29%) to 26,506.99.

The employment data surprised the market, increasing the likelihood of additional rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Nonfarm payrolls in the United States for August came in at 162,000, three times higher than the consensus, signaling solid economic conditions. However, this was not enough to fundamentally shift overall market sentiment. After the public release of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, renewed momentum for artificial intelligence (AI) demand boosted semiconductor stocks such as Micron (up 6.1%) and SanDisk (up 11.9%), which helped limit downward pressure on the indexes.

After the release of employment data, the probability of a U.S. base rate hike in September, according to FedWatch, remained in the upper 50% range, illustrating a similar outlook. This unexpected jobs report seems to have simply reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to employment stability, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized at the Jackson Hole meeting. Ultimately, the macroeconomic focus for both the Fed and the market has narrowed to the trajectory of inflation. As a result, attention has increased regarding the August CPI data to be released on the 11th.

The KOSPI index opened at 6,654.36, up 74.88 points from the previous trading day, as the status of the domestic stock market was displayed on the electronic board in the dealing room at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul, on September 4, 2026. Photo by Kang Jinhyung

Currently, according to the Bloomberg consensus, the inflation rate and core CPI for August are forecast to rise 3.4% and 2.4% year-over-year, respectively. Given that July's respective figures were 3.4% and 2.5%, inflationary pressures remain subdued. If the actual inflation metrics align with consensus forecasts, this would act as a source of relief for the stock market.

The domestic stock market is even more complicated. In addition to U.S. inflation indicators, it will also be influenced by the simultaneous maturity of domestic futures and options contracts. As we move toward the end of the week, volatility related to these maturities is expected to increase, while heightened caution ahead of the U.S. inflation data may prompt a wait-and-see approach among investors.

Oracle's earnings, set to be released on the 11th, will also be a major event impacting the trajectory of KOSPI stocks, including those in the semiconductor sector. While Oracle's share price had dropped more than 18% year-to-date, it rebounded by over 6% in early September, narrowing its losses on the back of robust AI demand and anticipated growth in its cloud business. This upcoming earnings release will help determine if concerns about AI investments and credit risk have peaked.

Ji-Young Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, commented, "This week, a series of U.S.-driven events in the latter half will intensify strategic moves in the market. With sustained selling pressure on semiconductor stocks at home and abroad likely easing, it is appropriate to adopt a strategy that expects stronger market recovery momentum this week, assuming the market successfully absorbs Oracle's earnings and the August CPI data."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.