"It's Not Property Tax, It's a Seoul Citizen Tax"... If Apartment Prices Continue, "All of Seoul Will Be Taxed by 2030"

KB Simulation of 125 Major Complexes

Number of Taxable Complexes to Rise from 78 to 101 by 2030

According to a recent analysis, if the rise in Seoul apartment prices continues, comprehensive real estate holding tax (hereinafter referred to as "property tax") will be imposed on major apartment complexes in 22 out of Seoul's 25 districts, excluding only Gangbuk, Geumcheon, and Dobong districts, by 2030.

On September 6, Assemblyman Shin Dongwook of the People Power Party, a member of the National Assembly's Political Affairs Committee, analyzed 34-pyeong apartments in the top five apartment complexes (by market price, according to KB Kookmin Bank) in each of Seoul's 25 districts, totaling 125 complexes, based on simulation models received from KB Kookmin Bank. The analysis found that this year, based on the simulation, 78 complexes in 19 districts will be subject to property tax.

A sales flyer is posted at a real estate office in Songpa-gu, Seoul.

If it is assumed that Seoul apartment prices maintain the growth rate of the past year (June 2025 to May 2026), which was 11% per year, the number of complexes subject to taxation would increase to 101 complexes across 22 districts for non-residents by 2030. In this scenario, even in Gwanak-gu, Nowon-gu, and Jungnang-gu—which currently have none of their five sample complexes subject to the property tax—the tax will be imposed, broadening the scope to encompass most districts except for Gangbuk, Geumcheon, and Dobong.

Among the 47 complexes currently exempt from taxation, 23 will newly become subject to property tax by 2030. Breaking it down by district: Gangseo, Gwanak, Guro, and Eunpyeong will each see four complexes become taxable; Seongbuk will have three; Jongno, two; and Nowon and Jungnang, one each. For example, in Eunpyeong-gu, DMC SK View (35-pyeong model) is currently exempt from property tax, but projections estimate that, starting in 2029, property tax will apply for non-residents, resulting in a payment of about KRW 1.13 million in 2030.

The number of taxable complexes is expected to temporarily decrease after tax reform but then increase again as housing prices continue to rise. Based on the non-resident standard, the number of taxable complexes is projected to decrease from 78 this year to 68 in 2027, then increase to 82 in 2028, 94 in 2029, and finally 101 by 2030.

The total property tax for all 125 complexes is estimated to rise from KRW 5.89 billion this year to KRW 52.62 billion for non-residents in 2030, which is an increase of 8.9 times. On the resident standard, it is expected to reach KRW 33.47 billion, a 5.7-fold increase.

When averaging the property tax per apartment, it increases from KRW 951,338 this year to KRW 8,428,401 for non-residents in 2030 (8.9 times), and KRW 5,549,778 for residents (5.8 times). This rapid increase is especially pronounced in areas outside Gangnam, where the current property tax burden is relatively small. In major complexes in Eunpyeong, Guro, Seongbuk, Gangseo, Dongdaemun, Gwanak, Nowon, and Jungnang districts, the total property tax burden is projected to increase dramatically from about KRW 720,000 this year to about KRW 40.58 million for non-residents in 2030—a staggering 56.6-fold surge.

Even if the price growth slows to half the past year's rate (an annual 5.5%), the property tax burden is still projected to rise significantly. In this case, by 2030, 82 complexes across 19 districts will be subject to taxation for non-residents. Four of the currently non-taxable complexes will newly become subject to the tax, all located in Gangseo-gu. The total property tax for all 125 complexes, based on the non-resident criterion, is expected to reach KRW 29.26 billion in 2030—about five times this year's amount—and KRW 17.19 billion for residents, a 2.9-fold increase.

Assemblyman Shin Dongwook pointed out, "Although the government's property tax reform plan has been partially revised, it has caused significant confusion in the real estate market," adding, "Going forward, property tax will effectively become a 'Seoul citizen tax' that is imposed even on ordinary people who own just one home in Seoul."

This simulation reflects both the government's property tax reform plan and its amendments. Beginning in 2027, the basic deduction will be set at KRW 1.4 billion for residents and KRW 1.2 billion for non-residents, with a fair market value ratio of 70%, and the cap on tax liability at 150%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.