US Intelligence: "Iran Grows More Confident Through War"... Possibility of Prolonged Conflict Rises
Hardline Leadership Unites the Regime Internally
Strait of Hormuz Becomes a Powerful Bargaining Chip
Possibility of Further Iranian Provocations Raised
The U.S. intelligence authorities have assessed that, through the ongoing war, Iran has become more confident in its own military capabilities. Unlike the United States, which is seeking an exit strategy, Iran appears determined to continue the war for several months as a means of pressuring the U.S.
According to the New York Times (NYT) on September 4 (local time), U.S. intelligence agencies stated in a recent report that Iran has grown more confident in its military strength.
The report indicated that Iran has clearly identified its military advantages during the course of the war and has become convinced that it can effectively confront the United States in a protracted conflict.
Jason Crow, a Democratic member of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, told NYT, "Iran currently sees its situation rather optimistically" and added, "They are pursuing a far more long-term strategy than before."
It is also being assessed that Iran’s governing base has actually solidified through this conflict. The leadership, which had been divided under the long-standing theocratic regime, has increased its cohesion, centered on hardliners, while internal opposition forces have become weakened.
Iran continues to maintain a significant level of missile and drone capabilities, and its control of the Strait of Hormuz has become a powerful bargaining chip.
Iran also believes that U.S. forces are not in a position to launch large-scale additional attacks. This is because the U.S. stockpile of missiles and ammunition has dwindled, reducing the possibility of a major attack against Iran.
There is also analysis that Iran intends to prolong the war until the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November, thereby increasing the political burden on President Donald Trump.
Congressman Josh Gottheimer told NYT, "Iran believes it currently has maximum negotiating leverage," and asked, "From their point of view, is there any reason not to continue pressuring President Trump?"
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There are even suggestions that Iran’s hardline leadership may be considering further escalation. Just as last month’s attacks on U.S. military bases in the Middle East resulted in the deaths of three Americans and the targeting of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, similar provocations could occur in the coming weeks.
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