Elderly Population Surpasses Young Children: "Four in Ten South Koreans Will Be Seniors" — Poised to Overtake Japan as the Most Aged Nation

US Census Bureau Report on Global Aging
1 in 10 People Worldwide Is Elderly
Elderly Population to Reach 2 Billion by 2060

Median Age in South Korea Projected to Reach 59.2 by 2060
Korea to Overtake Japan as the World's Most Aged Soci

For the first time in human history, the global population aged 65 and over has surpassed that of infants and young children, and the pace of aging is expected to accelerate further in the coming years. In particular, it is projected that in Korea, by 2060, 4 out of every 10 people will be elderly, making Korea the world's most aged society, overtaking Japan.

One in Ten People Worldwide is Elderly

According to the "World Aging: 2025" report released by the United States Census Bureau on September 3 (local time), the global elderly population as of last year reached 852 million, accounting for 10.5% of the world's total population of 8.132 billion. This means that more than one in every ten people alive today is elderly.

Moreover, for the first time in history, the proportion of elderly has surpassed that of infants and young children. In this report, the share of children aged five or younger amounted to only 9.8% of the global population. The report noted, "This reversal in population ranking between the youngest and oldest age groups is unprecedented in human history," adding, "This gap is expected to widen rapidly in the coming years."

It is also projected that future global population growth will be driven primarily by the elderly. Between 2025 and 2060, with the world population expected to increase by more than 2 billion, over half of that growth—about 1.148 billion people—will be aged 65 or older. In contrast, due to persistently low birth rates, the population aged 0 to 19 is expected to remain almost unchanged during the same period.

By 2060, the elderly population is expected to rise to 2 billion, making up 19.6% of the global population. Meanwhile, the proportion of infants and young children will drop to around 7.7%, further widening the population gap between generations.

The report cites the main drivers of global aging as increased life expectancy resulting from lower mortality rates, and a sharp decline in fertility rates. In particular, the rapid spread of fertility rates falling below the "replacement fertility rate"—about 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain population stability—was highlighted as a key trend.

In 2023, more than 71% of the world's population lived in countries with fertility rates below the replacement level, a steep rise from 45% in 2013, marking a 26 percentage point increase over a decade. The report analyzes that this change occurred much faster than anticipated a decade ago. India and China, the world's two most populous countries, have both already fallen below this threshold.

By 2060, Korea to Lead the World in Elderly Proportion

The report found that as of last year, the share of elderly people in Korea stood at 20.3%, ranking 22nd globally, but is expected to more than double to 41% by 2060. This would move Korea ahead of Japan, the current leader, making it the country with the highest proportion of elderly in the world. The proportion of the "super-aged" population—those aged 80 and older—is also set to surge, from 4.8% last year to 18.3% in 2060, nearly quadrupling. Korea will rank third after Monaco (27.1%) and Japan (19.4%).

The "median age"—the age of the person exactly in the middle of the entire population—was 46 years last year, and is projected to reach 52.8 years in 2040, and 59.2 years in 2060. As a consequence, the "old-age dependency ratio"—the number of elderly people supported by every 100 working-age people (15–64 years)—will skyrocket from 29.5 last year to 81.6 in 2060. This is 2.5 times higher than the global projection of 32.1 for 2060. Effectively, this means that just 1.2 working-age people will have to support each elderly individual.

Especially notable is Korea's elderly poverty rate, which was 40.5% in 2020, the highest among OECD member countries, where rates are typically around 20% or lower. The report attributed Korea's particularly high poverty rate among the elderly to several factors: the late introduction of the national pension system, insufficient coverage and payment levels of pension benefits, increased life expectancy, and early retirement driven by a seniority-based wage system.

However, the report emphasized that the elderly should not be seen solely as a social burden. It argued for the creation of an environment in which the elderly can remain active participants in the labor market for longer, and highlighted the value they contribute to society and the economy through unpaid work, such as family caregiving and volunteering.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.