Brooks: "Possible US-North Korea Contact in November-December... Substantive Talks After 2027"

"The sooner the meeting takes place, the more it will be for show"

"The later it is held, the more substantive it will be"

Victor Cha: "North Korea will wait for midterm election results"

Victor Cha: "Trump could invite Kim Jong Un to

There are forecasts that U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could make contact as early as between November and December this year. However, experts believe that an early meeting would likely be a political spectacle without substance, and that concrete, agenda-driven talks may only be possible after 2027.

A discussion titled 'Trump-Kim Jong Un Summit 2.0' hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the United States. CSIS YouTube

On September 3 (local time), Vincent Brooks, former commander of the U.S. Forces Korea, participated in a discussion titled 'Trump-Kim Jong Un Summit 2.0' hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He stated, "The earliest possible timing would be between this November and the G20 Summit," adding, "It is more likely to occur after both events have concluded."

Former Commander Brooks analyzed that North Korea has not completely shut the door to dialogue with the United States. He cited the fact that, while Pyongyang repeatedly uses derogatory language toward South Korea, it refrains from using the same level of rhetoric with the United States.

He said, "North Korea keeps the door open to ensure it does not compromise the possibility of dialogue when it is ready." However, he added, "At present, they are not ready. If they were, they would have sent a signal in a different way."

Brooks predicted that both North Korea and the United States would be interested in establishing an initial contact point in the coming fall. He particularly assessed that the United States is more likely to seek a rapid engagement than North Korea.

He said, "The faster the meeting is held, the more performative it will be," predicting that an early encounter could resemble the 2019 North Korea-U.S. summit at Panmunjom. Conversely, he noted, "The later the timing, the greater the chance it will contain substantive content."

He went on to say that, regarding substantive follow-up discussions centered on the leaders, "If they materialize, they are unlikely to happen at any point before 2027."

Victor Cha: "North Korea will wait for the midterm elections...Trump may invite North Korea to the G20"

Chinese President Xi Jinping made a state visit to North Korea last June and took a commemorative photo with Chairman of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jong Un. Photo by Yonhap News.

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at CSIS, also analyzed that North Korea is highly likely to wait until after this year's U.S. midterm elections. Cha said, "If North Korea is at all interested in meeting President Trump again, it will wait until later this year," adding, "After the midterm elections in November, they may believe their negotiating leverage will be greater as the President will have been weakened." He predicted, "North Korea will definitely wait for the results of the midterm elections before any talks."

Cha also analyzed that North Korea has its own reasons for wanting contact with the United States. He argued that Pyongyang can use its relationship with Washington as an 'active hedge' to boost its negotiating power with China and Russia.

Furthermore, Cha noted, "North Korea has observed what the United States has done in Iran and Venezuela, and what it is potentially capable of doing in Cuba." He argued that maintaining some contact with President Trump is necessary to lessen the possibility of U.S. military action.

Other factors driving North Korea to seek dialogue with the United States include South Korea's pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines and shipbuilding cooperation, as well as expanded rights for uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. From North Korea's perspective, it is necessary to discuss the accumulation of new South Korean military and nuclear capabilities with President Trump.

Cha also suggested that a scenario in which President Trump invites Chairman Kim to the G20 Summit is possible. He said, "Both leaders enjoy summit diplomacy as a showpiece," explaining, "If President Trump invites North Korea to the G20, with the United States hosting, it could draw the world's attention."

Differences over Trump’s decision to suspend joint South Korea-U.S. military drills

On the 17th, the South Korean and U.S. military authorities began the regular joint exercise 'Ulchi Freedom Shield' (UFS), aimed at defending the Korean Peninsula in case of emergency. Apache helicopters are on standby at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Regarding President Trump's recent directive to scale back joint South Korea-U.S. military drills, the two experts offered different evaluations. Cha assessed that the reason Trump interpreted Pyongyang's restraint from nuclear tests and long-range ballistic missile launches after the start of his second administration as 'non-threatening and respectful behavior.' He viewed the reduction in exercises as a type of corresponding measure from Trump’s perspective in response to North Korea’s conduct.

In contrast, former Commander Brooks acknowledged that reducing exercises could signal an opening for dialogue between North Korea and the United States, yet he strongly criticized the way the decision was made. He said, "Since these are joint alliance exercises, making such a unilateral decision is, frankly, extremely disrespectful to the alliance."

Brooks emphasized that the joint drills serve three functions: maintaining military readiness, reassuring allies, and deterring North Korea, China, and Russia. He pointed out that "the reduction in exercises undermined readiness, reassurance, and deterrence all at once."

He added that the upcoming South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral drill 'Freedom Edge', scheduled for next week, could help restore some of these three functions, stressing, "It is extremely important that this exercise is not cancelled."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.