Bolton Predicts "If Trump Holds U.S.-North Korea Summit, He Will Go to Pyongyang...Objective Is Publicity"

"Talks on U.S.-North Korea Summit May Be Underway"

"North Korea May Attempt Limited Provocations"

"South Korea Should Approach Summit Diplomacy with Caution"

John Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor in the first Trump administration, predicted that if President Donald Trump pursues another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the next stage is likely to take place in Pyongyang. However, he expressed strong concerns that such talks could be aimed more at achieving political and publicity gains rather than making genuine progress towards denuclearization.

On September 1 (local time), during a virtual forum hosted by the Institute for China-America Studies (ICAS) in Washington, D.C., former Advisor Bolton said, "Trump became the first U.S. president to meet the North Korean leader in Singapore in 2018 and the first U.S. president to step on North Korean soil at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in 2019." He added, "Now, what remains is to go to Pyongyang."

Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton. Photo by Moon Honam

He assessed that the background for President Trump seeking another U.S.-North Korea summit is "because he needs new photos and wants to shift attention elsewhere." There is analysis that, if Trump loses the midterm elections in November, he may try to redirect domestic political tensions with Congress toward foreign policy issues.

Former Advisor Bolton also recounted an episode in which President Trump, during the 2018 Singapore summit, reportedly suggested to Chairman Kim that they ride Air Force One together to Pyongyang. He said, "The sole purpose of visiting Pyongyang is publicity. That is really all there is to it."

Bolton expressed concern over President Trump referring to North Korea as a "nuclear power." He remarked, "I am extremely skeptical about what we can get from Kim Jong Un," adding, "Meanwhile, North Korea has probably calculated in great detail what it can gain from the talks."

He also considered that President Trump may have come up with the idea of another bilateral summit on a whim. While saying, "There is every possibility that discussions are currently underway to see if such a summit can be realized," he warned, "A summit that produces no results could actually set things back."

Bolton criticized President Trump for tending to view international relations in terms of personal relationships between leaders rather than national interests. He said, "Trump does not think he needs the State Department, the Defense Department, or the Treasury Department. He simply believes that 'two friends' just need to talk to each other," adding, "I consider that to be dangerous."

U.S. President Donald Trump posted a photo on Truth Social on the 25th (local time) taken with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at Panmunjom. President Trump's Truth Social post

He was particularly concerned that the internal system of checks and balances among Trump's advisors might not function properly during the president’s decision-making process on North Korea policy. He said, "I don't know who is currently advising Trump on North Korea, and I can't even be sure that anyone is advising him on this issue."

Bolton cited President Trump’s reduction of the annual South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise, Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS), as a representative example. He recalled that during the 2018 Singapore summit, when Kim raised the issue of the joint exercises, President Trump responded on the spot, suggesting he would cancel the drills, which surprised the accompanying aides.

"North Korea May Try to Test Trump’s Resolve Through Limited Provocations"

Bolton also drew attention to the fact that North Korea, by sending troops to Russia’s war in Ukraine, has gained field experience and improved its drone warfare capabilities. Based on this, he argued, North Korea may conduct limited military provocations against South Korea in order to test the United States’ willingness to intervene.

He explained that, in China’s case, instead of launching a full-scale invasion or blockade of Taiwan, Beijing could try to test America’s commitment by occupying Taiwanese-held islands such as Jinmen Dao (Kinmen) or islets in the South China Sea.

He warned that a similar situation could occur on the Korean Peninsula. Bolton said, "If we consider the Northern Limit Line (NLL), North Korea might occupy a few islands beyond that line," adding, "They could try to create a test case to measure Trump’s resolve." He also commented, "Such a situation is deeply concerning."

Additionally, former Advisor Bolton advised that the South Korean government should approach top-level diplomacy with the United States very cautiously. Addressing President Lee Jaemyung, he said, "It’s not necessarily a bad thing not to actively push for a summit with Trump," and cautioned, "You need to be careful about what Trump says and what actions he takes. There are significant risks involved."

However, he also suggested that if a U.S.-North Korea summit were to take place, the abduction issue could become a diplomatic card that South Korea could leverage. He said that if Chairman Kim shows a forward-looking attitude toward resolving the abduction issue, this could also benefit North Korea. "If anyone can open a new path on this issue, I think it would be President Lee," he continued. "Even within the context of Korean politics, this aligns with President Lee’s own political interests."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.