[Good Morning Market] Will the '7,000 KOSPI' Arrive This Week? Watch for US Employment, Korean Exports, and Broadcom Earnings

Chair Warsh’s Hawkish Fed Speech, Limited Index Decline

U.S. Employment: As Long as It Meets Consensus, Market Volatility Remains Contained

Due to the impact of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, uncertainty surrounding the direction of long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and changes in supply and demand for Korean semiconductor stocks since August, the KOSPI is expected to make another attempt to reach the 7,000 mark. The projected trading range for the KOSPI this week is between 6,400 and 7,200.

The KOSPI index opened at 6,996.12 on the 27th, up 187.91 points from the previous trading day. The display board in the dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul, shows the current status of the domestic stock market. August 27, 2026. Photo by Jinhyung Kang

U.S. stock markets closed lower, affected by Chair Warsh’s hawkish (preference for monetary tightening) speech. On August 28 (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 53,559.99, down 9.45 points (0.02%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 index fell 19.23 points (0.25%) to 7,711.76, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 138.93 points (0.52%) to 26,402.42.

At the Jackson Hole meeting, Chair Warsh pointed out that despite last month’s slowdown in inflation indicators, underlying inflation remains persistently high. As his comments were interpreted as hawkish by the market, the probability of a U.S. base rate hike next month surged from the previous 35% range to about 59%. However, since the declines in all three major U.S. indices were limited, it appears that his remarks did not deliver a significant shock to the market.

This week, major economic indicators are also scheduled for release. On September 4, the August U.S. nonfarm payroll results will be announced. As this will serve as a key indicator to confirm the validity of the priority placed on 'employment stabilization and responding to inflation' as outlined by Chair Warsh, it is expected to have a significant influence on the market. The consensus for August nonfarm payroll growth is an increase of 55,000, pointing to a recovery trend; if actual employment figures meet this level and wage growth remains stable, the risk of a base rate hike or a sharp rise in long-term rates next month is expected to decrease, thus lowering the likelihood of heightened market volatility.

Also worth noting is Korea's export performance for August, scheduled for release on September 1. The consensus for August export growth is 62.9% year-on-year, similar to the 60% range recorded in July. In particular, it will be crucial to see whether semiconductor exports, a leading sector, continue their strong mid-to-high triple-digit growth. Since the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks has been caused not by fundamental deterioration but by heightened expectations and supply-demand issues, market attention is likely to focus on both stock prices and supply-demand dynamics in the semiconductor sector once robust export data for August is confirmed.

Additionally, Broadcom’s earnings will be released on September 3. Just as Nvidia’s strong results in the second quarter this year bolstered credibility in the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle, if Broadcom delivers positive guidance, there is a strong possibility that AI-driven demand will expand across the broader AI infrastructure sector.

Jiyoung Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "While the stock market emphasizes the long-term narrative of AI growth, there is increasing scrutiny on how quickly AI investments are actually translating into sales and profit compared to before. For Broadcom’s earnings, changes in AI revenue guidance for upcoming quarters and the speed of revenue recognition will be critical. The results are expected to exert substantial influence not only on the U.S. AI sector but also on the domestic stock market, which should be proactively reflected in this week's investment strategies."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.