"Trump May Meet Kim Jong Un First, Possible Second Summit After Midterms"

"Negotiations Should Address Issues Like North Korea's Withdrawal from Ukraine After Implicitly Recognizing Its Nuclear Status"
Experts: "Official Recognition as a Nuclear State Is a Separate Matter"

Former U.S. officials have speculated that U.S. President Donald Trump may resume talks by holding a summit meeting first with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and could pursue an additional summit after the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November.

Anthony Ruggiero, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and former Director for North Korea at the White House National Security Council (NSC) during the first Trump administration, addressed the possibility of resuming U.S.-North Korea talks in an interview released by U.S. PBS on the 28th (local time). He said, "If I had to predict, President Trump would simply meet Kim Jong Un in order to restart talks in some form."

U.S. President Donald Trump posted a photo on his Truth Social on the 25th (local time) showing him together with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at Panmunjom. Truth Social

Ruggiero noted that direct dialogue between President Trump and Chairman Kim could serve as a starting point for restarting working-level negotiations at the secretary or deputy secretary level.

He explained, "A conversation between Kim Jong Un and the president could lead to the resumption of such negotiations, and one could imagine a scenario where a second summit follows after the midterm elections or sometime next year." This indicates that President Trump could directly meet Chairman Kim to restart U.S.-North Korea talks, and then pursue an additional summit.

Ruggiero also argued that it is necessary to recognize the changed reality concerning North Korea's nuclear issue. He revealed that while he himself used to believe denuclearization had to remain at the center of negotiations, his view has recently shifted.

He pointed to the reality that North Korea has possessed nuclear weapons for a long time, suggesting that this fact should at least be implicitly acknowledged, allowing the United States to shift the focus of negotiations to issues of greater importance. Specifically, he mentioned the withdrawal of North Korean troops from Ukraine and the suspension of military support to Russia.

However, he drew a clear distinction, stating that this does not mean recognizing North Korea as an official nuclear-armed state. "The question President Trump and his advisors must grapple with is whether they can achieve an agreement with North Korea that has tangible effects, and whether they can manage other countries that might see this as a green light for their own nuclear armament," Ruggiero said.

He further evaluated that the United States possesses sufficient incentives and deterrence measures to counter such risks. He did not specify which countries might consider developing their own nuclear weapons.

Regarding President Trump's recent reduction of joint military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea, Ruggiero expressed little surprise. He said, "The only thing that surprised me is that President Trump did not do this last year," explaining that President Trump holds strong views regarding joint exercises between the U.S. and South Korea.

Rachel Minyoung Lee, Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center, another participant in the discussion, assessed that making denuclearization the starting point of negotiations is, in practice, difficult.

"Given the current reality, starting any agenda with North Korea by mentioning denuclearization or even including the term itself is virtually impossible," Lee said. However, she stressed that this does not mean politically recognizing North Korea as a nuclear-armed state.

She pointed out that accepting the reality of North Korea possessing nuclear weapons is separate from politically acknowledging its status as a nuclear-armed state as North Korea demands. She also noted that at the present juncture, even simply reactivating the "New York Channel"—the working-level communication channel between the U.S. and North Korea—would represent significant progress.

Lee analyzed that North Korea currently holds a much stronger negotiating position than it did at the last U.S.-North Korea summit in 2019. She explained that North Korea has survived years of international sanctions and COVID-19 lockdowns, has recently strengthened ties with Russia, and has seen China stepping up high-level exchanges, all of which enhance North Korea’s negotiating leverage.

In contrast, Bruce Klingner, Senior Fellow at the Mansfield Foundation, warned that the approach of holding a leaders' summit first should be handled with caution. He suggested that while President Trump favors large agreements he can highlight as achievements, North Korea could likely employ the so-called "salami tactics," extracting concessions and rewards in a step-by-step fashion.

Klingner argued that North Korea may demand compensation simply for showing up at the negotiating table, and continue to press for further concessions. He advocated for a "bottom-up" approach, in which sufficient working-level negotiations are conducted before any summit meeting between leaders.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.