Will 1.5% of South Korea’s Land Covered by Solar Farms by 2040 Be Enough or Too Much? [Digging Energy]

To Install 155 GW of Solar, Land Area 2.6 Times Larger Than Seoul Needed
Not a Small Scale, Given That 63% of Land Is Forested
Experts: "Implementation Strategy Matters More Than Targets"
Renewables Expected to Surpass 30% of Electricity Mix by 2035
Grid and ESS Issues Must Be Solved for Renewables to Become Main Power Source

As the Steering Committee for the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (the 12th Power Plan) forecasts that renewable energy capacity will reach 220 gigawatts (GW) by 2040, there is growing debate about the feasibility of this target. The 220 GW projection is six times the current level—an extremely aggressive estimate. Notably, achieving the 2040 solar energy target of 155 GW would require installing solar power plants across 1.5% of the nation’s land area.

The Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Environment and the 12th Power Plan Steering Committee held a public forum on renewable energy supply forecasts on August 26 at Korea Electric Power Corporation’s South Seoul Headquarters in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul.

The Ministry intends to submit the 12th Power Plan—a 15-year long-term electricity supply and demand strategy—to the National Assembly within the year. Ahead of this, the Ministry is sequentially hosting open forums to present and collect feedback on major proposed elements of the plan.

At the forum, Sangmin Cho, a professor at Korea Polytechnic University, presented projections for 2040 renewable energy supply: 155 GW from solar, 16 GW from onshore wind, 45 GW from offshore wind, and 4 GW from other sources. In total, renewable energy capacity would increase to 220 GW by 2040.

This represents an increase of 183 GW compared to the 37 GW of renewables installed at the end of last year. The government develops energy policies based on the content of the Power Plan. If these projections are confirmed in the finalized plan, the government will develop policies to increase renewable energy capacity sixfold over the next 15 years.

Solar energy would account for about 70% of the projected 220 GW. As of the end of 2025, installed solar capacity will stand at 31 GW, which means solar capacity would need to increase fivefold in 15 years. To meet the 155 GW solar target by 2040, an average of 8.2 GW of solar must be newly installed each year from now through 2040.

The Steering Committee explained that the projections were derived by applying a diffusion model based on the solar market potential, taking into account installation scenarios without minimum distance restrictions. The committee calculated a maximum market potential of 271 GW for solar by 2040. "Reflecting the government's policy focus on rapidly advancing the transition to renewables, we anticipate achieving 87 GW by 2030 and scaling up to 155 GW by 2040," the committee said.

According to the solar industry, installing 1 kW of solar equipment requires about 10 square meters (approximately 3 pyeong) of land. Based on this standard, installing 155 GW of solar capacity would require 1,550 square kilometers of land—2.6 times the size of Seoul and equivalent to 1.5% of South Korea’s total land area.

At first glance, 1.5% of the country’s area may appear modest. However, considering that 63% of the country is forested, the perspective changes. The actual share of solar in available land would be much greater. The required 1,550 square kilometers also represents about 10% of South Korea’s total farmland area (roughly 15,000 square kilometers).

With the expansion of renewables, their share of the nation’s generation mix is expected to grow significantly. Professor Sangmin Cho forecasted, “The share of renewable energy in electricity generation will exceed 30% by 2035 and take responsibility for meeting mega-scale demand by 2040.” This suggests that after 2035, renewables will become the primary power source in South Korea’s energy mix.

Experts are expressing skepticism about the feasibility of such projections. There are calls to focus less on setting targets and more on devising effective implementation strategies.

Eunseong Kim, Vice President of Next, said, “The numbers seem more idealistic than realistic. To make this projection a reality, we must first resolve business uncertainties and address infrastructure issues, such as weaknesses in the power grid.”

Jung Kuhyung, Director at Korea Electrotechnology Research Institute, commented, “For renewables to become the main power source, the F-LCOE must fall, which will require us to consider how to lower the cost of energy storage systems (ESS).” F-LCOE refers to the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), including the added cost for output stabilization (firming) such as storage systems.

Youngjoo Kwak, Chairman of the Korea Photovoltaic Power Producers Association, said, “Grid issues are more critical than capacity targets. The lack of grid capacity means that many solar projects nationwide are still subject to output curtailment and there are substantial connection queues.” Chairman Kwak also noted, “Transmission development by Korea Electric Power Corporation cannot keep pace with renewable deployment. A societal discussion on reasonable electricity rate increases is necessary.”

Sangjun Lee, professor at Seoul National University of Science and Technology, emphasized, “Implementation is more important than setting targets. Once renewables become competitive in the market, their deployment will naturally follow.”

Renewable energy supply forecasts are likely to rise further in the future, because the projections announced at the forum did not reflect the recently proposed adjustment to solar setback distances. On July 21, the government announced a draft revision to the Renewable Energy Act’s enforcement ordinance, lowering the required setback distance from roads for solar projects from 100 meters to 0 meters.

If setback distances from roads are reduced, the market potential for solar installations will grow even larger, thus further increasing the supply outlook. Professor Sangmin Cho noted, “It will likely take considerable time to estimate new market potentials, update supply forecasts, review grid implications, and amend other equipment plans to reflect these changes, which will be included in the 13th Power Plan.”

Meanwhile, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s “Global Energy Review 2026,” the share of renewables in South Korea’s power generation will be 9.7% in 2025, ranking the country 38th out of 38 OECD member states. The OECD average was 35.3%. In solar alone (6.7%), South Korea ranked 25th, and in wind (0.6%), it ranked 33rd.

However, some point out that these figures alone do not justify categorizing South Korea as “lagging” in renewable energy. According to data the Korea Energy Agency submitted to the National Assembly in 2023, South Korea’s installed solar capacity per square kilometer was 209 kW—the highest among the 20 major economies (G20). This is about 17 times higher than the G20 average of 12 kW per square kilometer.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.