Analysis by Former Trump Administration NSC Director for North Korea

Former U.S. officials have predicted that during talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, topics such as the implicit acceptance of North Korea's nuclear program, a formal end to the Korean War, and a suspension of South Korea-U.S. joint military drills will be discussed.


Anthony Ruggiero, who served as the White House National Security Council (NSC) director for North Korea during the first Trump administration, stated in an op-ed for the U.S. Congressional news outlet The Hill on the 27th (local time), "Negotiations between Trump and Kim Jong Un are likely to include, at a minimum, an implicit recognition of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program."

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Former Director Ruggiero said, "Trump may propose a peace treaty to officially end the Korean War, improvements to political and economic relations, and a permanent halt to South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises," adding, "Trump could also facilitate inter-Korean dialogue."


He suggested that President Trump should demand verifiable limits on North Korea’s long-range ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. He also emphasized that a deal should require North Korea to withdraw its troops from Russia, which is at war in Ukraine, and to cease military support to Russia.


Ruggiero noted that President Trump might meet Kim Jong Un either in North Korea or in a neutral zone to sign a deal, predicting that such a scene would become a "made-for-TV" moment for the president.


He analyzed that President Trump could enhance his negotiating leverage with Kim Jong Un by sanctioning North Korean nationals operating in China, as well as Chinese banks and individuals helping North Korea evade sanctions. He assessed that such measures, comparable to U.S. pressure targeting China’s small-scale refineries processing Iranian crude oil, would likely not provoke Chinese President Xi Jinping.



Ruggiero also pointed out that negotiations with North Korea will not be easy. "Many people see North Korea as a backward hermit kingdom, but it has more than 30 years of experience negotiating with the United States and has generally obtained its desired outcomes," he explained. He added that while President Trump will face criticism for pursuing talks with Kim Jong Un, unlike previous administrations that repeated the same negotiation strategy while expecting different results, Trump's pursuit of realistic objectives deserves recognition.


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