U.S. isolation operation intensifies Iran's economic crisis
WSJ: "Small-scale protests and panic buying resurface"

As the war between the United States and Iran drags on, Iran's economy is facing a severe crisis due to the effects of the U.S. "economic isolation operation" and maritime blockade. Hyperinflation is in full swing, with the value of Iran’s national currency plunging to historic lows and the price of daily necessities soaring by several times. Panic buying of basic goods and a fuel crisis are spreading, and even small-scale labor protests have begun to emerge.


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According to international media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Al Jazeera on the 26th (local time), the United States has launched an "economic isolation operation" aimed at completely cutting off funding to the Iranian regime, delivering a direct blow to the country’s financial and real economies. On the 25th, the Iranian rial exchange rate fell to 2,050,000 rials per US dollar, dropping more than 7% in just one week and hitting an all-time low. Compared to one year ago, the real purchasing power in terms of the US dollar has been slashed by half.


The collapse of the currency’s value has led directly to an explosive rise in the cost of living. According to Al Jazeera, since before the war, the price of tomatoes has jumped by 71%, chicken by 74%, and cooking oil by a staggering 177%. Especially dire is the price of insulin—essential for diabetes patients—soaring by 642%, signaling a true crisis for basic goods and medical supplies.


A money exchanger is counting US dollar bills at Ferdowsi Square, the foreign currency trading hub of Tehran. Photo by AP Yonhap News

A money exchanger is counting US dollar bills at Ferdowsi Square, the foreign currency trading hub of Tehran. Photo by AP Yonhap News

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U.S. maritime blockade depletes rice and fuel... Panic buying spreads

Due to the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent airstrikes, some oil refineries have been damaged, and import routes have been cut off, sparking major concerns about energy and food security. Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for the Iranian Oil Exporters’ Union, told local outlet ILNA that "domestic crude oil production cannot cover local demand, making us highly vulnerable to U.S. sanctions." In reality, long lines of vehicles trying to secure fuel have formed at gas stations in Tehran and other major cities.


The food situation is also worsening rapidly. When the United Arab Emirates (UAE), once Iran’s main rice supplier, stopped trading with Iran in line with U.S. sanctions, the supply instability of basic goods reached its peak. The WSJ reported that panicked buying by citizens has led to temporary shortages of rice and cooking oil at major supermarkets in Tehran. The Iranian government has stated that it has reserves of basic goods to last several months and is urging people to be self-sufficient, but the fear of further shortages is rapidly spreading as sanctions continue.


Supermarket in Tehran. Photo by AFP News Agency

Supermarket in Tehran. Photo by AFP News Agency

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Protests by workers spotlight hardships of daily life

Labor protests, which had been largely absent since the outbreak of war, are resurfacing. According to ILNA, on the 24th in southern Asaluyeh, workers at offshore oil and gas facilities staged a protest over livelihood crises and wage issues. A day earlier, on the 23rd, about 100 dismissed workers at the Shadegan steel complex in the west held demonstrations demanding reinstatement.


Strikes over delayed wages or demands for pay raises are not uncommon in Iran. However, WSJ noted that because protests had all but disappeared since the outbreak of war at the end of February, the latest developments merit close attention.


Iran stresses ‘self-sufficiency’ amid U.S. pressure

The United States is intensifying Iran’s economic isolation by targeting its main funding sources and trade networks. On top of existing sanctions, the UAE has also suspended trade and financial transactions with Iran, further narrowing Iran’s access to imports and payment systems.


In response, the Iranian government has declared its policy to reduce reliance on external supplies and strengthen self-sufficiency. It has also called on younger generations to actively engage in economic activities and directly produce goods needed by households and local communities.


However, experts point out that it will be difficult for Iran to replace its current economic scale and production base in a short period. In particular, with the country’s production and logistics infrastructure disrupted by the war and the currency’s sharp decline, it is likely impossible for self-sufficiency alone to address rising prices and supply instability.


Iranian leadership sees war as existential, little likelihood of policy shift

It still remains uncertain whether U.S. economic pressure will bring about a change in policy by Iran’s leadership. The United States aims to deepen Iran’s economic crisis and compel it to enter negotiations. However, many analysts believe that since the Iranian leadership regards the current war as a matter of national survival, it is unlikely that rising public hardship alone will result in a meaningful shift in bargaining stance.


Speaking to Al Jazeera, Trita Parsi, president of the Quincy Institute, said, "These additional sanctions will undoubtedly inflict significant suffering and damage on the Iranian people, but translating that pain into a true shift in leadership policy is an entirely different matter."




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