Renewable Energy Deployment to Reach 220GW by 2040... Sixfold Increase Over 15 Years

12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply Public Forum
Utility-Scale Solar to Expand to 155GW by 2040

The government has decided to expand renewable energy deployment to 220 gigawatts (GW) by 2040. This figure is six times higher than at the end of last year, requiring the deployment of more than 12GW per year.

The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment and the 12th Electric Power Supply Basic Plan General Committee held the 6th public forum at Korea Electric Power Corporation’s Namseoul Headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul, on the 26th. At the event, Sangmin Cho, Professor at Korea Polytechnic University, announced the draft plan for the 12th Electric Power Basic Plan, which aims to expand renewable energy to 220GW by 2040. The breakdown includes 155GW of utility-scale solar, 16GW of onshore wind, 45GW of offshore wind, and 4GW from other sources.

As of the end of last year, the installed renewable energy capacity in Korea stood at 37GW, including 31GW of utility-scale solar, 2GW of onshore wind, 0.4GW of offshore wind, and 4GW from other sources. Under the provisional plan, renewable energy would increase by 183GW over the 15-year period from this year to 2040—six times the amount in place last year.

The General Committee projects that renewable energy will rise to 100GW by 2030 and 163GW by 2035.

Considering that the 11th Electric Power Basic Plan, finalized in March 2025, called for the expansion of renewable energy to 107.8GW by 2035 and 121.9GW by 2038, the latest forecast marks a very aggressive upward revision.

The 12th Electricity Basic Committee General Meeting Released the 2040 Renewable Energy Deployment Outlook on the 26th

The most significant increase is planned for solar energy. The General Committee forecasts that utility-scale solar capacity will increase from 86.7GW in 2030 to 122.2GW in 2035, and reach 155.3GW by 2040.

The General Committee stated that it derived its diffusion model projections based on market potential, taking into account the additional deployment volumes enabled by the removal of setback distance restrictions. As a result, it estimates that the targets will be achieved 3.6 years earlier than initially anticipated. For 2040, the market saturation for solar is set at 271GW.

For onshore wind, the projections account for existing approved capacity, new projects, and anticipated repowering. The new capacity is based on the results of environmental site consulting, with 5GW considered suitable sites; for repowering, it is projected that 0.3GW will be decommissioned and 0.6GW reinstalled between 2036 and 2040.

For offshore wind, projections are 3.1GW by 2030, 25GW by 2035, and 45GW by 2040. The General Committee explained that this incorporates 24.6GW of previously approved projects (excluding impeded projects) and 20GW at newly planned sites.

Self-generation solar is predicted to reach 8.1GW by 2030, 11.9GW by 2035, and 16.3GW by 2040. The General Committee stated that easing of setback distances, introduction of the self-generation facility certification (REGO), and public sector K-RE100 initiatives will accelerate deployment by 2040.

Meanwhile, matters relating to the legislative notice issued on July 21 for the amendment of the Renewable Energy Act—centered on the relaxation of solar setback regulations—have not been reflected in this forecast. The General Committee explained that the reassessment of market potential, forecasts for deployment, grid reviews, and modifications to facility plans, all in response to setback distance changes, will take considerable time and are expected to be included in the 13th Electric Power Basic Plan.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.