Former CIA Analyst: "Little Chance of U.S.-North Korea Talks... U.S. May Offer More Concessions"

KEI Expert Seminar

"South Korea-U.S.-Japan Relations Weaker Than in 2023"

U.S. President Donald Trump is sending messages suggesting a resumption of U.S.-North Korea dialogue, but according to one Korean Peninsula expert, the actual likelihood of talks taking place remains extremely low due to limited incentives for North Korea to negotiate with the United States. It has also been suggested that, as President Trump previously reduced U.S.-South Korea joint military drills, North Korea may now demand further concessions from the United States, such as the cancellation of additional drills.

"North Korea No Longer Needs U.S. Sanctions Relief Like Before"

On June 30, 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump (right) is meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Joint Security Area (JSA) in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow at the Mansfield Foundation and former CIA analyst, said at a seminar hosted by the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) in Washington, D.C., on August 25 (local time), "The possibility of talks is either extremely low or nonexistent. Even the last remaining sliver of possibility is gone." Klingner previously served as the CIA's chief of the Korea branch and Deputy Division Chief for Korean Affairs.

He highlighted how North Korea's position in the international community has changed compared to the past. "North Korea is receiving between 14 and 20 billion dollars from Russia in the form of food, fuel, funds, and military technology. Trade with China has also recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels. The regime is earning about 1 billion dollars annually from cryptocurrency-related crime," he said, noting that "unlike a few years ago, North Korea no longer needs U.S. sanctions relief as much as before."

However, he pointed out that a summit could still be possible depending on how much the United States is willing to concede to North Korea. Klingner said, "It depends on how low the U.S. sets the threshold and how willing President Trump is to make concessions." He cited the recent reduction of the U.S.-ROK joint military exercise "Ulchi Freedom Shield" (UFS) as the first concession, predicting that "additional exercise cancellations will follow." He further predicted that North Korea would consider these insufficient and demand further concessions.

"Trump is likely to want to meet with North Korea, and he will disregard the interests of Japan and South Korea," Klingner observed. "In this context, while North Korea is the greatest security threat to South Korea, the United States, and Japan, the greatest challenge is the United States itself—meaning the president. We witnessed 'Donald Corleone' (a comparison of President Trump to a Mafia boss) extort tariffs, threaten to withdraw troops, and use insulting language," he remarked pointedly.

Trilateral South Korea-U.S.-Japan Relationship Judged as 'Generally Weaker'

President Donald Trump (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meeting at Panmunjom on June 30, 2019. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News Agency

Experts responded that the trilateral relationship among South Korea, the United States, and Japan has generally weakened compared to August 2023, when the Camp David statement was issued. Two out of three experts assessed that the relationship had become "weaker," while one cited "mixed" positive and negative factors. They generally agreed that at the center of this shift is the prospect of President Trump returning to power.

Jo Eun-Ah, Assistant Professor at William & Mary, argued, "His coercive leverage against allies and obsession with relative advantage have been extremely damaging to the trust underpinning these alliances." After noting that South Korea takes a different stance from the United States and Japan regarding China, Jo anticipated that, if relations among China, North Korea, and Russia grow to resemble a formal alliance, "South Korea will inevitably become more deeply tied to the expanded goals of trilateral cooperation."

Ayumi Teraoka, Assistant Professor at Brandeis University, said, "Though momentum has clearly weakened due to U.S.-originated uncertainty, the mere continued convening of ministerial and working-level trilateral meetings, even in a potential second Trump administration, reflects institutional progress." She added that, whereas in the past the United States had to bring South Korea and Japan into trilateral cooperation, "now South Korea and Japan are working to keep the United States engaged in trilateral cooperation."

Regarding the improvement in South Korea-Japan relations, she described "(South Korean President) Lee Jaemyung and (Japanese Prime Minister) Sanae Takaichi as fairly pragmatic leaders," stating, "One of the reasons these two leaders get along well is that they share a tendency to prioritize pragmatism over ideology." She especially emphasized, "In dealing with the volatility of President Trump, the pragmatic approach of both leaders has proved to be a good fit."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.