"I'll Serve Tuna Instead of Salmon": What Seemed Like a Windfall Had a Reason...Japanese Restaurants Shaken by Seafood Shortages

Seafood supply shortage drives sharp price hike
Scallops and sea urchin down 20%... Salmon sees 70% plunge
Processing industry faces mounting management risks from soaring raw material costs

As seafood supply from Hokkaido — regarded as Japan's largest seafood production area — has dropped, changes are also occurring in restaurants and the processing industry. As prices of sea urchin, salmon, and scallops have risen, the ingredients used for seafood rice bowls have been changing, and processing companies are facing growing cost burdens.

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Decline in Seafood Catches Leads to Higher Prices...Worsening Supply Outlook for This Year

On August 23, Nikkei Asia reported that ingredients such as tuna, yellowtail, and horse mackerel — which were not commonly used before — have been appearing more frequently in kaisendon (seafood bowl) dishes at Sapporo's Nijo Market, a popular spot for tourists.

A restaurant owner at Nijo Market stated, "To be honest, the only ingredient with stable prices and supply is tuna," adding, "It is becoming increasingly difficult to source the ingredients we have used for a long time."

The background behind this change — even in the ingredients of kaisendon — is the reduction in the supply of key seafood products from Hokkaido. From 2020 to 2025, the catch volumes of scallops and sea urchins in Hokkaido both dropped by approximately 20 percent. Shrimp catches plummeted by around 40 percent, and salmon catches fell by nearly 70 percent.

As supply shrank, prices surged. According to data released by Hokkaido last month, the prices of sea urchin, horsehair crab, salmon roe, and scallops all rose simultaneously between 2020 and 2025.

Last year, the average price of scallops exceeded triple that of 2020, reaching 395 yen per kilogram (about 3,400 won). The prices of shrimp and salmon also more than doubled, sea urchin prices increased by about 90 percent, and horsehair crab and squid prices rose by approximately 40 percent.

It is projected that the supply and demand situation will further deteriorate this year. A research institute in Hokkaido forecasts that the autumn salmon catch may drop to half of last year's already poor level. Scallop production is also expected to decrease further.

Despite falling catch volumes, the total value of seafood catches actually increased due to higher prices. Last year, the seafood catch volume in Hokkaido was 913,000 tons — down 15 percent from the previous year — but the value of the catch rose 13 percent to 323 billion yen (about 2.8184 trillion won). This is the largest figure in about 30 years. Increased overseas demand for Japanese seafood has also contributed to rising prices.

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Processing Companies Struggle with Higher Raw Material Prices...Decline in Processing Facilities

However, the increase in the value of seafood catch has not translated into higher profits for processing companies. Companies that process seafood into retail products are unable to fully pass on the increase in raw material costs to the prices of their products, leaving them to bear the extra burden.

Scallops must have their shells removed, and salmon must be filleted. Salmon roe is cured in soy sauce or salt before it can be supplied to restaurants and households across the country. Because the processing stage is essential in delivering seafood to consumers, processing companies play a critical role, but shortages of raw materials and rising procurement costs are putting immense pressure on their management.

Although Hokkaido is Japan's main hub for seafood processing, the number of facilities there has declined in recent years. Companies unable to withstand raw material shortages and soaring procurement costs have closed down. Since seafood processing requires specialized skills and significant investment, it is difficult for new companies to enter the market quickly even when incumbents disappear.

Tsuyoshi Sasaya, president of Marusa Sasayashoten, a seafood processing company in Kushiro, Hokkaido, said, "The burden of increased seafood prices is falling on processing companies," adding, "If the industry continues to weaken, it may become impossible to try anything new, including facility investments."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.