Could South Korea Provide Air Defense Missiles to Ukraine? [Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club]

Requests Now Coming From President Zelensky and Former Vice President Pence
U.S. and Allies Face Interceptor Missile Shortages as Wars Drag On

On the afternoon of the 26th, the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Armed Forces Day commemorative event was held along Sejong-daero in Jung-gu, Seoul, where the three-axis system equipment including the long-range surface-to-air guided weapon L-SAM and the medium-range surface-to-air missile Cheongung marched. The three-axis system to respond to North Korea's nuclear and missile launches consists of the Kill Chain, Korea Air and Missile Defense system (KAMD), and Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation system (KMPR). Yonhap News

The South Korean government is facing increasing difficulties over repeated requests from Ukraine for assistance with air defense missiles. Following requests from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, former Vice President Mike Pence, who served under U.S. President Donald Trump during his first administration, has also urged support, putting Seoul in a position where it must give a clear answer.

On August 23 (local time), former Vice President Pence appeared on CNN and commented on Russia's commencement of ballistic missile launches toward Ukraine, stating, "President Lee Jaemyung could take a further step by providing intercept missiles that the U.S. could deploy to the Middle East, Ukraine, or European allies." In essence, he suggested that South Korea and other allies could provide intercept missiles to the United States, which would then deploy them in the Middle East, Ukraine, or Europe, thereby indirectly assisting Ukraine.

The situation in Ukraine remains dire. Due to the prolonged nature of the war, the available stock of Patriot interceptor missiles has effectively run dry. Ukrainian authorities estimate that they need at least 300 Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles just to withstand concentrated Russian attacks on the country's electricity, gas, and water facilities during winter. Meanwhile, Russian missile production shows no signs of slowing. According to the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR), Russia set a record in July by launching 198 ballistic and hypersonic missiles, the highest monthly total to date, with ongoing estimates suggesting that Russia produces around 60 ballistic missiles per month.

Neighboring countries are also finding it difficult to support Ukraine. For instance, the United States is facing a shortage of its own interceptor missiles due to the prolonged Iran war. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the U.S. stockpile of Patriot interceptor missiles has dropped to around 800—down 65% from before the wars. Meanwhile, the number of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors has decreased by approximately 40-50%, leaving only 250 in inventory.

A launcher at an Air Force medium-range surface-to-air guided missile battery "Cheongung-II" deployed somewhere in northern Gyeongbuk. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Even with sufficient funding, production is challenging. During last year's 12-day war with Iran, U.S. forces are estimated to have used around 150 THAAD interceptors. However, Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of THAAD, has an annual production capacity limited to only 96 units. Simple arithmetic shows that two weeks' usage accounted for 1.6 times the annual production output. The Patriot missile faces a similar situation. While Lockheed Martin’s annual production is about 600 units, approximately 1,500 Patriot missiles had been used by July this year, severely depleting reserves.

It is also not easy to utilize allied nations' air defense missile assets as alternatives. In Israel’s case, a multi-layered air defense network has been established with the Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems. However, due to the protracted conflict, even Israel’s reserves have diminished, and securing its own stockpile has become the priority, similar to the U.S. situation.

The circumstances are no different for South Korea. The Cheongung-II missile is in high domestic and international demand. South Korea must respond to North Korea's increasingly sophisticated ballistic missile threats, and in addition, Seoul has signed export contracts for over 20 Cheongung-II batteries to countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq—a deal valued at approximately 12 trillion won.

There is also the possibility of relocating the air defense assets of U.S. Forces Korea. In March, some THAAD systems deployed in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, were observed being moved out, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth acknowledged this during a congressional hearing. However, any withdrawal of U.S. Forces Korea assets could severely affect not only operational capabilities but also the security of allied nations, adding to the burden on Seoul.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.