"Impact of Mega Projects" Maximum Power Demand Up 19.4% ... Exceeding 165GW by 2040

The 5th Forum on the 12th Power Supply and Demand Basic Plan

Reflecting the government's mega projects such as AI data centers and the Honam Semiconductor Cluster, it is projected that the maximum power demand in 2040 will increase by 26.6GW to 26.8GW compared to the initial forecast.

The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment and the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand General Committee released their updated projections at the "5th National Policy Debate on Reassessment of Power Demand for the Establishment of the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity" held at the National Assembly Members' Office Building on August 20, 2026. According to the public announcement, the peak power demand for 2040 is expected to reach 158.4GW (base scenario) to 165GW (high scenario).

This represents an increase of 26.6GW to 26.8GW (20.2% to 19.4%) compared to the 131.8GW to 138.2GW range disclosed during the 3rd debate in April. Although the General Committee had previously released a demand forecast during the 3rd debate, demand was recalculated following the government's announcement of three major mega projects.

As a result of this reassessment, significantly higher projections were produced by reflecting the Korea Development Institute’s revised economic growth outlook and including detailed investment plans for the national mega projects.

For advanced semiconductors, such as those in the semiconductor sector, the recalculated projection prioritized 36.8GW with high feasibility out of the total contracted power volume of about 40GW. This takes into account the completion of the Yongin Cluster ahead of schedule, the formation of a new cluster in the Honam region, and the expansion of fabs in Pyeongtaek and Cheongju.

Accordingly, the maximum power demand for advanced industries in 2040 is projected to be 24.6GW to 24.3GW, a significant increase from the originally presented 4.0GW to 3.7GW.

The 2040 demand for AI data centers was revised upward from the initial 4.0GW to 11.9GW (the same figure for both base and high scenarios). The General Committee explained that, following the mega projects, investment plans totaling 20.8GW in contracted power are now on the table for 2040. Of this, the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity will initially review the first-phase target of 10.8GW, with the second-phase target (10GW) to be reviewed in the next plan.

The maximum power demand attributed to electrification is forecast at 17.0GW to 17.7GW, which is similar to the previously presented range of 17.2GW to 17.8GW.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.