Victor Cha: "Trump Has No Choice but to Take Different Approaches to North Korea and Iran Nuclear Issues"

"North Korea's Nuclear Capabilities Already Advanced, Unlike Iran"

"Low Feasibility for CVID"

"Strike on Iran May Reinforce North Korea's Commitment to Its Nuclear Arsenal"

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), assessed that U.S. President Donald Trump has a certain degree of strategic rationale in adopting different approaches to the nuclear issues of North Korea and Iran.

Victor Cha, Chair of the Korea Task Force at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

In an op-ed for the Washington Post on the 19th (local time), Cha argued that it is not appropriate to simply label President Trump’s hardline position—refusing to allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons, while seeking negotiations that account for the reality of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal—as a double standard.

He cited the fundamental differences in the two countries’ levels of nuclear development and the distinct set of U.S. policy tools available to contain them.

Cha explained that in Iran’s case, its nuclear program is still in a relatively early stage and the locations of its major nuclear facilities are known, which means that military strikes remain a viable option to prevent nuclear weapon development. In contrast, North Korea already possesses a considerable number of nuclear weapons and nuclear materials, as well as various delivery systems, so the situation is fundamentally different.

He estimated that North Korea holds about 60 nuclear weapons, along with fissile material sufficient to construct around 30 more. Given this level of nuclear sophistication, Cha noted that the United States can no longer realistically pursue “complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization (CVID)” as an immediate policy goal.

Cha also analyzed that there are differences in the effectiveness of economic sanctions. While a significant portion of the international community’s united economic sanctions against Iran remain intact, the UN Security Council sanctions regime against North Korea has effectively weakened due to support from China and Russia.

He further pointed out that the positions of neighboring countries also affect U.S. policy choices. According to Cha, President Lee Jaemyung welcomes Trump’s diplomatic engagement with North Korea, as he does not want growing military tensions on the Korean Peninsula, whereas Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has strongly demanded Iran’s complete denuclearization.

Cha also highlighted that both North Korea and Iran are drawing lessons from the United States’ different responses to them. The two countries, which have historically cooperated in missile programs, are closely watching U.S. policy actions and may adjust their future nuclear strategies accordingly.

In particular, Cha noted that a U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities may have reinforced North Korea’s belief that it must never give up its nuclear weapons. At the same time, he did not rule out the possibility that Iran may seek technical assistance from North Korea if it tries to rebuild its nuclear program in the future.

Recently, Cha has advocated maintaining denuclearization as a long-term goal, but he proposes acknowledging North Korea’s existing advanced nuclear capabilities and engaging in arms control and nonproliferation negotiations—a concept he describes as a “cold peace.” He argues that, instead of repeating policies prioritizing denuclearization first, focus should now shift to realistic negotiations that can immediately reduce the North Korean nuclear threat.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.