"6.3GW Power Demand for Honam Semiconductor Fab Can Be Met Without New Power Plants"

Reinforcing Transmission Lines Takes Priority Over Building Power Plants
7.2GW of Transmission Capacity Needed Beyond 11th Long-Term Power Grid Plan
Additional Investment in Solar Power and ESS Required to Achieve NDC Targets

An analysis has found that the 6.3 gigawatts (GW) of electricity needed for the Honam semiconductor plant (fab), which the government is pursuing as one of three mega projects, can be supplied by building new transmission lines without constructing additional power plants. However, the strong opposition from local residents to the construction of transmission networks remains a key variable. Moreover, to achieve the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets for greenhouse gas reduction, additional investments in renewable energy and energy storage systems (ESS) are deemed inevitable.

According to a report published on the 18th by NEXT, a non-profit corporation, titled 'Honam Semiconductor Fab: Conditions for Power Supply', "If the power generation facilities outlined in the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand are established as planned and if the Honam transmission network is reinforced, the fab's electricity demand could be met without constructing new power plants."

The four memory semiconductor fabs that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix plan to build in the Honam region will require 6.3GW of power. According to the government’s schedule, the first phase is slated for completion in 2029, with initial mass production beginning in early 2030. Within the industrial complex, two new substations will be built to supply 3GW by 2029, with the cumulative supply capacity to be expanded to over 6GW thereafter.

NEXT focused its analysis on the Honam fab—the only mega project with a clearly identified site, timing, and scale—examining the impact on the power grid in 2030 and 2031. Power consumption will reach 23.5 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2030 when two fabs go into operation, and increase to 46.9TWh in 2031 when all four fabs are operational. This projected 2031 demand would account for 7.3% of the nationwide power consumption of 643.2TWh.

NEXT stated, "The analysis showed that what is newly required for power supply is not additional power plants, but rather the reinforcement of the transmission grid," adding, "Provided that the generation facilities in the 11th Basic Plan are built as scheduled, the connection of the fabs will require about 7.2GW worth of new transmission lines beyond those already planned in the 11th Long-term Transmission and Substation Facility Plan."

Among the required upgrades, about 4.2GW should be completed by 2030, when two fabs commence operation. The primary transmission corridor would come from Yeonggwang, followed by the route passing through Shinan and Jangseong to reach the fab site.

An additional analysis indicated that further investments in renewable energy and ESS are necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the construction of semiconductor fabs.

According to NEXT, the emissions from the power sector under the baseline scenario for 2031 would be 1,444,000 tons, exceeding both the 2031 target of 1,344,000 tons under the 53% reduction scenario and 1,307,000 tons under the 61% reduction scenario as set out in the 2035 NDC.

NEXT analyzed that an additional 12GW of solar power generation would be needed to satisfy the 53% reduction scenario, and 19GW to meet the 61% reduction path.

To expand solar capacity, additional storage systems must also be installed. NEXT estimates that the required additional storage is 4.6GW under the 12GW solar scenario, and 6.3GW under the 19GW scenario. By 2031, this would result in total battery capacity of 12.5GW and 14.2GW, respectively. All these batteries are capable of supplying power for six hours at their rated output.

Accordingly, total costs for expanding solar and ESS capacities are also expected to rise. By 2031, total costs are projected to increase by 2.6% for the 53% reduction path and by 4.1% for the 61% path. When divided by power consumption, this represents an additional 2.5 won and 3.9 won per kWh, which is equivalent to 1.5% and 2.3% of the average selling price in 2025, respectively. NEXT explained, "It is estimated that a little more than half of the construction costs for solar and storage facilities would be recovered through fuel cost savings."

NEXT stated, "The key challenge for the Honam semiconductor fab is not the ability to supply electricity, but whether the reinforcement of the transmission grid and the first Basic Plan for Renewable Energy can be implemented in a timely manner." The organization added, "More than half of the transmission lines needed for fab operation must be completed by 2030. If the project is delayed, both fab operation and the expansion of renewable energy in Honam will be pushed back as well."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.