"Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Considers Ground Invasion of Kuwait"

"Cutting Undersea Cables Also Under Consideration"
Possibility of Wider Middle East Conflict... Heightening Security Concerns

AP Yonhap News

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 17th (local time) that hardliners in Iran are planning to escalate the conflict, including a ground invasion of Kuwait, after the 60-day deadline for a ceasefire agreement with the United States has passed and talks have broken down. The report states that Iran intends to further raise the level of military provocations by uniting with pro-Iranian armed groups in the Middle East. Surrounding Middle Eastern countries, including Kuwait, are also said to be deeply concerned about a further escalation.

Quoting Iranian officials, the WSJ said, "Iran is formulating new plans to further heighten tensions, including the possibility of a preemptive strike." The plans reportedly include the destruction of internet cables on the floor of the Persian Gulf, inciting political instability by mobilizing the Shia communities in Kuwait and Bahrain, and potentially staging a ground invasion of Kuwait.

Analysts suggest that since signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the U.S. in June, the Iranian hardline leadership has used the lull to establish escalation strategies in advance. The WSJ noted, "The central strategy was to grant the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) greater authority to control the regular army and to appoint key hardline officials to major positions." The report also pointed out, "Iran determined that the U.S. sought to keep the Strait of Hormuz open through a ceasefire agreement to prevent rising oil prices and to buy time to prepare for future attacks. In response, Iran has instead prepared for escalation."

In practice, the IRGC has sent military advisors to allied forces such as Yemen's Houthi rebels, Iraq's Shia militias, and Lebanon's armed Hezbollah faction, in order to devise escalation plans. In particular, the Houthi rebels have reportedly received support in the form of missiles and drones for blockading the Red Sea and have been supervised in the placement of these weapons. Furthermore, lists of targets, including Saudi Arabian ports and energy infrastructure, have been provided.

Through this strategy, Iran began attacking civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz that refused its control at the end of last month and is currently attacking oil tankers from Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea.

Kuwaiti authorities are taking the possibility of an actual ground invasion by Iran very seriously. Back in May, there was an incident where six IRGC soldiers infiltrated a Kuwaiti island using a fishing boat, engaged in a firefight with Kuwaiti forces, and some withdrew. The WSJ reported that there are now concerns that Iran may mobilize pro-Iranian militias from southern Iraq to invade Kuwait.

The United States, for its part, does not appear likely to resume diplomatic talks with Iran anytime soon. U.S. President Donald Trump made it clear at a press conference that there would be "no" extension of the memorandum of understanding with Iran. He added, "We are controlling the Strait through a blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it as (U.S.) territory. We could do that," issuing a warning.

For now, the war between the United States and Iran appears to have reached an impasse, but some analysts note that it is increasingly likely the Iranian regime will ultimately choose war over negotiations. Alan Eyre, former U.S. diplomat and diplomatic scholar at the Middle East Institute, told WSJ, "The basic situation for the Iranian regime is ultimately war." He added, "Iran will maintain a wartime posture and prepare for future attacks."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.