Trump Calls ROK-US Joint Drills "War Games"… US Experts Warn of Weakened Alliance Trust

Claims Kim Jong Un Responded to Dialogue Offer

First Substantial Incentive in Second Term

Seeking Distraction Amid Lack of Progress in Iran War

U.S. President Donald Trump, after ordering a significant reduction in joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States, further described them as "war games" on the 17th (local time), revealing his negative perception. On the same day, he also announced that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had responded to his proposal for dialogue.

Diplomacy and security experts in Washington, D.C. analyzed that the situation is reminiscent of when the suspension of joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises was announced after the North Korea–U.S. summit in Singapore in June 2018. They emphasized that President Trump, who has yet to find an exit from the ongoing war with Iran, is destabilizing the South Korea-U.S. alliance to divert domestic public attention.

Trump Offers a 'Carrot' to Kim Jong Un

U.S. President Donald Trump is speaking at the White House on the 17th (local time). Photo by AP Yonhap News

During an emergency video seminar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on this day, experts pointed out that President Trump’s decision to reduce joint exercises serves as a 'carrot' to bring Chairman Kim to the negotiating table. Victor Cha, CSIS Korea Chair, said, “It’s meant to entice Kim,” evaluating this as the first concrete incentive from President Trump in his second term. Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, also noted that this might be a 'tactical' move aimed at opening dialogue with North Korea. Sydney Seiler, advisor to the CSIS Korea Chair Program, remarked that there was already precedent in 2018, when President Trump suspended joint exercises to spur North Korea-U.S. talks, so this is not unprecedented.

On the same day, in response to questions from The Asia Business Daily regarding the decision to reduce joint exercises, the U.S. Department of Defense stated, "The Department of War is actively working on executing the Commander-in-Chief's directive." This can be interpreted as the Department of Defense having begun actual implementation following President Trump's announcement the previous day instructing the Secretary of Defense to significantly scale back the joint exercises. However, the Department of Defense did not comment on how the ongoing joint South Korea-U.S. exercise, "Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS)," would be specifically adjusted, nor did it confirm whether relevant discussions with the South Korean side had started.

North Korea has long demanded a halt to joint exercises, calling them "invasion war drills." On the 13th, a spokesperson from North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement criticizing the UFS exercise, scheduled to begin on the 17th, as an even more heightened "invasion war drill" compared to the previous year, asserting that North Korea's "confrontational stance" would be unmistakably expressed. President Trump, for his part, agreed with this view the previous day on social media, stating that he and Chairman Kim maintain a good relationship and that the joint exercises send "inappropriate and hostile signals" to North Korea.

However, The New York Times, citing high-ranking U.S. military officials, reported that President Trump’s sudden announcement left the Department of Defense taken aback. Just hours before responding to The Asia Business Daily, the Department of Defense had replied, "There are no changes to announce—please check with the White House," indicating a lack of prior coordination.

Chair Yeo cautioned that a reduction in joint drills could pose greater long-term strategic risks for the United States. He stressed that these exercises align with both the defense of South Korea and U.S. interests, adding, “It seems President Trump has forgotten who our allies and adversaries are.” Philip Gordon, former National Security Advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris during the Biden administration, also criticized President Trump for adopting Kim Jong Un's rhetoric and treating the joint drills as obstacles to peace on the Korean Peninsula.

"North Korea Watching for Dialogue Opportunities With the U.S."

Korean Central News Agency reported on the 17th that the "81st Anniversary of the Fatherland Liberation National Circus Troupe Comprehensive Circus Performance" was held the previous day at the Pyongyang Circus Theater with Chairman Kim Jong Un in attendance. Chairman Kim also took commemorative photos with officials of the National Circus Troupe. Korean Central News Agency

Notably, President Trump also alluded to the possibility of a summit with Chairman Kim on this day. At a White House press conference, in response to a reporter’s question on why Chairman Kim had not responded to his proposal for talks, President Trump asked in return, "How do you know he hasn't responded?" When the reporter further pressed, "So, has Chairman Kim responded?" Trump answered, "Yeah, he has." Regarding the status of dialogue, President Trump replied, "very positive."

However, experts believe that North Korea is unlikely to immediately accept President Trump’s overtures. North Korea has greatly advanced its nuclear and missile capabilities and has deepened military ties with Russia, especially compared to Trump’s first term. Victor Cha assessed that North Korea will likely wait and observe before engaging the U.S. in talks, but said there is a possibility that, rather than relying solely on North Korea–China–Russia ties, Pyongyang may seek direct diplomacy with the U.S. or Japan to broaden their diplomatic options.

Even if the leaders of both countries were to meet directly, experts anticipate it would be difficult to deliver concrete outcomes such as nuclear program freezes or reductions, or to embark on substantive peace negotiations. Advisor Seiler stated that while a North Korea-U.S. summit is possible, North Korea’s enhanced nuclear capabilities and stronger ties with Russia have weakened the leverage the U.S. once had.

"Confidence in the U.S. Defense Commitment Weakening From South Korea's Perspective"

From South Korea’s viewpoint, a particularly painful aspect is that President Trump has preemptively offered joint exercises—a core asset of the South Korea-U.S. alliance—as a bargaining chip for dialogue with North Korea. These joint drills are a key means to maintain combined operational capabilities and alliance readiness in the event of a North Korean attack. According to military officials, South Korea and the U.S. had planned to use this exercise to address evolving threats such as drones, GPS jamming, and cyberattacks, reviewing combined defense readiness accordingly.

This has heightened concerns in South Korea over the possibility of being sidelined in forthcoming North Korea–U.S. talks, the so-called ‘Korea passing’ phenomenon. If Chairman Kim maintains relations with China and Russia while simultaneously seeking rapprochement with the U.S. and Japan, he could break out of diplomatic isolation without engaging South Korea. However, there’s also speculation that the Lee Jaemyung administration may seek to leverage resumed dialogue between North Korea and the U.S. Chair Yeo observed, “President Lee has shown interest in dialogue with North Korea,” adding, “If an opportunity arises for Kim Jong Un and Trump to meet, it would certainly be a welcome card for President Lee.”

President Trump’s push for improved relations with North Korea is largely seen as a response to his inability to find a resolution in the nearly six-month-long war with Iran. With midterm elections (November 3) approaching, Victor Cha commented, “President Trump seems eager for Iran-related news to disappear from the headlines. He’s weary and bored with the issue and, lacking clear solutions or easy answers, is trying to shift attention elsewhere.” Although President Trump revealed that Chairman Kim had responded to his proposal for dialogue, he did not disclose specifics such as the timing or nature of the response. It also remains unclear whether North Korea’s response was prompted by the order to scale down joint exercises or if it referred to past interactions.

Experts also downplayed the theory that dissatisfaction with South Korea’s role in the Iran war was a main driver of the reduced exercises. “President Trump harbors grievances with many allies over the Iran issue, and South Korea is by no means the only one,” they said. “While he did make a pointed remark at South Korea, it was not the primary motivation for this decision.”

President Trump also revealed that he had recently spoken with President Lee Jaemyung over the phone to request South Korea’s assistance on the Iran issue, but that President Lee declined. President Trump said, “I recently called the President of South Korea, whom I like, and asked, 'Can you help us a bit? Not that we necessarily need help with the Iran issue, but if you want, please lend a hand.' And the President said, 'No, I’ll have to pass.'”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.