Centuries of Accumulated Seismic Energy ... Experts Warn of Possible Magnitude 8.8 Megaquake in Peru

Tectonic Deformation Has Accumulated Along Peru's Central Coast for Decades
Only 20% of the Energy Released Since the Previous Major Earthquake
"Exact Timing of Future Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted"

As a series of powerful earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding 7 struck Venezuela and Colombia, concerns are mounting over seismic risks in the South American region. Experts have warned that the energy accumulated along the central coast of Peru could potentially trigger a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 to 8.8 in the future.

On the 17th (local time), part of a building collapsed due to an earthquake in Pereira, Colombia. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

On the 17th (local time), U.S. media outlet UPI reported, "Concerns over earthquake risks in South America are resurfacing after a series of powerful earthquakes hit Venezuela and Colombia in succession."

Venezuela experienced two powerful earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.2 and 7.5 on June 24. Forty-seven days later, on August 10, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred in western Colombia, prompting neighboring countries to express concerns about the potential for large-scale earthquakes.

According to the Peru Disaster Risk Assessment, Prevention, and Reduction Center, Peru is exposed to a very high risk of earthquakes, particularly in the capital city Lima and the surrounding areas.

Cesar Jimenez Tintaya, a seismologist at the National University of San Marcos in Peru, stated in an interview with local radio station RPP that only about 20% of the energy accumulated in central Peru since the massive earthquake of 1746 has been released thus far, adding, "This means an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 to 8.8 could occur in central Peru."

In connection with these concerns, Fabiola Barenechea, Secretary General of the Intergeographic Foundation and a disaster risk and climate change expert, also explained that there is scientific evidence to support this outlook.

In an interview with UPI, Secretary General Barenechea said, "Along the coasts of Peru and Chile, the Nazca Plate continues to subduct beneath the South American Plate. In regions where the two plates are strongly coupled, tectonic deformation accumulates over decades to centuries." She identified southern Peru, northern Chile, as well as southern Ecuador and Colombia as the regions most likely to experience large earthquakes.

However, Secretary General Barenechea emphasized, "While it is possible to identify where earthquakes are likely to occur, it is still impossible to know exactly when they will happen."

On the 17th (local time), a residential area where buildings collapsed due to an earthquake in Pereira, Colombia, was photographed by drone. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News Agency

A Series of Major Earthquakes ... "No Proven Causality"

The recent spate of major earthquakes has led to speculation that South America may be entering a period of heightened seismic activity. However, experts explained that the occurrence of several earthquakes within a span of a few weeks alone does not constitute sufficient evidence for an extraordinary increase in seismic activity. Although the earthquakes occurred relatively close together in time, they were caused by different tectonic movements, making it difficult to argue that there is any direct causal relationship between them.

Secretary General Barenechea stated, "It is true that several large earthquakes have been observed within a relatively short period, but this does not mean there is an unusual level of seismic activity in South America." She explained that earthquakes are not distributed evenly over time, and periods of relative calm can be followed by several large earthquakes within a matter of weeks.

Reinaldo Charrier, a geology professor at Andres Bello University in Chile, shared the same view. The earthquakes in Venezuela were linked to the interaction between the Caribbean Plate and the South American Plate. The Caribbean Plate moves eastward along the northern edge of the South American continent, while the South American Plate moves westward, forming friction zones and major faults in northern Venezuela.

Notable examples include the Oca-Ancon, San Sebastian, and El Pilar faults, with this fault zone extending for over 1,000 kilometers. The movement speed of the faults is about 20 to 30 millimeters per year, but they do not move continuously.

Professor Charrier explained that "due to friction, faults can remain locked for decades, and when the resistance threshold is exceeded, the accumulated energy is suddenly released." He added that the major earthquakes in 1812, 1900, and this year were related to these faults, with an average recurrence interval of approximately 100 years.

In contrast, the cause of the earthquake in Colombia was different. This recent earthquake occurred at a depth of more than 106 kilometers inside the Nazca Plate beneath the Pacific Ocean. The Nazca Plate is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire and is subducting beneath the South American Plate. The earthquake in Venezuela, on the other hand, had a focus depth of about 19 kilometers.

Professor Charrier commented on the Colombian earthquake, saying, "This was an intraplate earthquake that occurred as the plate bent downward, which is generally very rare."

Secretary General Barenechea explained that although the two earthquakes are not directly related, a major earthquake can alter the existing stress state within the crust. She added, "It is known that earthquakes change the crustal stress distribution and, in the case of large earthquakes, can trigger minor seismic disturbances hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away."

"Prediction of Additional Major Earthquakes Is Impossible"

However, there is no scientific basis for the idea that such effects could trigger another major earthquake in Peru or Chile. Secretary General Barenechea emphasized that while earthquakes occurring in distant regions can have some influence, "with current technology, it is not possible to predict that another major earthquake will follow as a result."

South America has experienced some of the most powerful earthquakes in the world in the past. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Chile was hit by a magnitude 8.8 earthquake in 2010, and a magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck the Pisco region of Peru in 2007.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.