Democratic Party Convention Enters Final Stage: Will Kim Solidify His Lead in Honam or Will Jung Stage a Comeback?

Minseok Kim Confident in Honam, Cheongrae Jung Bets on Seoul Region
If It Remains a Tight Race, Public Opinion Poll Results Will Be Critical

With just one day left until the Honam primary, considered the most critical battleground of the Democratic Party's 8·17 national convention, attention is focused on whether candidate Minseok Kim, who is currently in first place by a narrow margin, can solidify his lead. Kim is confident of victory in the Honam region, while the second-place candidate Cheongrae Jung is banking on a win in the Seoul metropolitan area.

As of August 14, based on the cumulative votes of party members with voting rights, Kim holds 46.01% of the vote, while Jung has 44.53%, meaning the gap between them is just 1.48 percentage points. Kim's camp aims to widen this gap as much as possible in Honam, where they believe he has the advantage. Their strategy is that if Kim leads Jung by a double-digit margin in Honam, he can ultimately win overall, even if the Seoul metropolitan region turns into a close race.

Democratic Party leader candidates Kim Minseok and Chung Cheongrae Yonhap News

Recent public opinion polls also show Kim enjoying an advantage in the Honam region. According to a Realmeter survey conducted among 1,053 Democratic Party supporters and independents out of 2,003 adults nationwide from August 9-10, Kim received the highest support rate in Honam with 57.7%, leading Jung (28.2%) by 29.5 percentage points.

The race was much closer in the Seoul metropolitan area. In Seoul, Kim received 39.9% while Jung had 34.5%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. In Gyeonggi and Incheon, Kim recorded 45.5% and Jung 40.3%, a gap of 5.2 percentage points. (The margin of sampling error for the poll is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level with a response rate of 3.7%. For more details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.)

Jung is promoting the strategy of "Urban Jungcheongrae, Rural Minseok Kim," aiming to keep the Honam contest tightly contested and win in Seoul and Gyeonggi, where he believes he has the upper hand. For Jung's plan to work, he must minimize Kim’s lead in Honam as much as possible.

Another point of interest is how well Younggil Song, the only candidate among the three whose hometown is Honam, will perform. Currently in third place, Song has accumulated a total vote share of 9.47%. Since last week, Song has been staying in Honam and campaigning extensively throughout the region.

The final outcome is likely to be determined by the results from Honam and the capital region, as approximately 510,000 of the total 1.55 million voting party members are from Honam, and about 580,000 are from Seoul and Gyeonggi. In the online vote among Honam party members held on August 11-12, turnout was 37.63% in South Jeolla and Gwangju and 35.22% in North Jeolla, amounting to an estimated 180,000 participants. When the ARS vote taking place on August 13-14 is included, the number of voters in Honam alone far exceeds the 208,271 party members who cast ballots in the primaries conducted in the first and second weeks (Chungcheong, Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam, Jeju, Incheon, Gangwon, Daegu-Gyeongbuk).

However, if the neck-and-neck race between the two frontrunners continues in both Honam and the capital region, the results of the public opinion poll, which accounts for 30% of the overall outcome, will also have to be considered. The final result will be determined by combining the votes of party members and nationwide delegates (70%) with the public opinion poll (30%). The general public opinion poll will be held over two days, from August 14 to 15.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.