"Is This Year Really the Hottest? Next Year Could Be Even Hotter as El Niño Intensifies"

Due to an unusually strong El Niño, there is a growing possibility that this year could surpass 2024 and become the hottest year ever recorded.

Associated Press Yonhap News

On August 13 (local time), Bloomberg News reported that, according to the monthly global temperature analysis by Berkeley Earth, a non-profit research organization, the likelihood of setting a new all-time high temperature record this year is increasing. Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, stated, “There is a high probability that we will see quite dramatic weather phenomena within the next year or so,” adding, “We will experience weather conditions that would normally be expected more than a decade from now, but much earlier.”

Berkeley Earth especially noted that the current El Niño, which began in June, is developing very strongly, and the probability of this year becoming the hottest year on record has risen sharply—from 12% last month to 69% this month. The probability that this year will be the second hottest on record is about 30%, while the likelihood of ranking below third is less than 1%. In July, the global average temperature was about 1.56 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average (1850–1900), making it the second hottest July on record.

Recently, heatwaves have persisted worldwide. Last month in France and Spain, heatwaves led to widespread wildfire damage. Certain regions in the United States experienced record heat due to a heat dome phenomenon. Korea was no exception. In Yangsan, Gyeongsangnam-do, the temperature reached 42.5°C earlier this month, setting a new all-time highest temperature recorded in the country. The U.S. mainland’s monthly average maximum temperature also broke a record set about 90 years ago during the peak of the Dust Bowl. The Dust Bowl refers to a period of severe drought, heatwaves, and massive dust storms that struck the U.S. Great Plains in the 1930s.

Regardless of whether a record is set this year, Berkeley Earth forecasts that a new all-time global temperature record will be established in 2027. Since El Niño’s effects on global average temperatures are reflected with a lag of several months, the impact of the strengthening El Niño in the second half of this year is expected to manifest fully next year.

However, scientists emphasize that we should not judge the trends of climate change based solely on a single year’s temperature ranking. Climate change is a process that unfolds over decades, whereas El Niño can have a substantial impact on monthly or yearly temperature fluctuations. Nevertheless, the long-term global warming trend caused by greenhouse gas emissions continues and is intensifying. Zeke Hausfather, a scientist at Berkeley Earth, commented, “El Niño is like a giant hammer pounding the climate,” adding, “It will significantly disrupt various weather patterns.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.