U.S. Missile Shortage and Inexperience in Drone Warfare Expose Weaknesses... "Strategic Defeat by China Feared"

"Guam Base Could Be Neutralized by China"
U.S. Armored Brigade Wiped Out in Simulated Exercise

AP Yonhap News

A U.S. think tank has warned that if the United States were to engage in direct military conflict with China at this moment, there is a high risk that it could face a strategic defeat. The analysis points to the dangerously depleted stockpiles of interceptor missiles due to the war in Iran, suggesting that the U.S. may be unable to prevail against China. It was also revealed that the U.S. military suffered a decisive loss in a war simulation conducted in the first half of this year, simulating conflict with Ukrainian military drone units. Experts say that if the U.S. military fails to swiftly adapt to the new modern tactics, which center on the use of drones and ballistic missiles, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain military deterrence against adversaries like China and Russia.

The Heritage Foundation, a conservative U.S. think tank, stated in a report released on the 12th (local time), "The U.S. military currently faces a severe shortage of interceptor missiles, such as Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and SM-3." The foundation pointed out that "the U.S. possesses less than 10% of the amount needed to deter or, if necessary, win a prolonged high-intensity conflict with China."

The report continued, "If this serious shortage of interceptor missile stockpiles persists, it could result in operational failure and, ultimately, lead to a strategic defeat for the U.S. military." It also warned, "If conflict were to break out with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China at current stockpile levels, major U.S. bases such as Andersen Air Force Base in Guam could be rendered inoperative by China within days."

The Heritage Foundation emphasized the urgent need to ramp up the U.S. military's interceptor missile production capacity. It stated, "To adequately respond to China, the U.S. military requires 19,370 Patriot interceptors and 5,525 THAAD interceptors, yet the current stockpiles comprise only 1,500 Patriots and 200 THAADs." The report further noted, "At current production levels, it would take a minimum of 29 years and up to 86 years to secure the necessary number of interceptor missiles. However, a clash between the two countries could break out in the Pacific as early as next year."

The U.S. Department of Defense has also begun making substantial efforts to address the interceptor missile shortage by increasing reserves. According to Fox News, the U.S. Army has included funding in the 2027 fiscal year budget for the procurement of 2,798 Patriot interceptors and 857 THAAD interceptors, among others. This is a significant increase compared to the previous request for 320 Patriot interceptors and 25 THAAD interceptors in the 2026 fiscal year.

AFP Yonhap News Agency

In addition to the missile stockpile shortfall, the U.S. military is also reported to be lagging in its proficiency with drone tactics. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), from April to June, a joint simulation exercise was held at a military training site in Germany between U.S. armored units and Ukrainian drone units, in which the U.S. forces suffered a crushing defeat. Over 3,500 soldiers from the 3rd Armored Brigade under the 1st Cavalry Division participated, but they were wiped out almost instantly by the Ukrainian drone units. It was reported that the U.S. heavy armored tanks engaged in the exercise were quickly neutralized and classified as destroyed by suicide drones.

The U.S. military has observed the power of small suicide drones in the wars in Ukraine and Iran, and has responded by acquiring anti-drone technology and even establishing special units. However, the preparedness of the forces for actual combat situations remains weak. Eliot Cohen, chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told the WSJ, "This simulation showed just how critically important drones have become in modern warfare, yet the U.S. military still has not mastered their application. It highlighted how vulnerable U.S. armored units are to drone attacks in real combat situations."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.