"SK hynix: 1.48 Million Won vs. 4.7 Million Won—Why Target Prices Diverge More Than Twofold for the Same Stock"

Diverging Outlooks Amid Extreme Volatility
SK hynix: 1.48 Million Won vs 4.7 Million Won
"HBM, AI Momentum" vs "Peak-Out Concerns"

As the roller-coaster market conditions continue in the domestic stock market, there has been a widening gap in target prices for the same stocks, sometimes reaching severalfold differences. This phenomenon is interpreted as the result of growing discrepancies in how brokerages view future business prospects and earnings estimates amid heightened market volatility.

According to financial information provider FnGuide on August 10, SK hynix showed the largest deviation in target stock prices—calculated as the difference between the highest and lowest targets—for the top 20 companies by market capitalization on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ, based on analyst reports published over the past two months (June 1 to August 6. The target price range for SK hynix was 217.6%.

For the KOSPI, the companies with the largest target price gaps after SK hynix were Hyundai Mobis (126.4%), Samsung Electronics (116.7%), Samsung Electro-Mechanics (114.3%), Hyundai Motor (110.5%), NAVER (87.5%), HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (80.0%), Samsung Life Insurance (70.5%), Samsung C&T (66.7%), and KB Financial Group (66.3%). On the KOSDAQ, Ecopro BM posted the highest gap at 200.0%, followed by PSK (75.0%), Roboteez (43.8%), Pharmaresearch (35.0%), and Alteogen (28.9%).

SK hynix, which ranked first in KOSPI price deviations, saw sharply divided opinions among securities firms. Korea Investment & Securities raised its target price from 3.8 million won to 4.7 million won on July 30, citing the continued rise in memory prices and the full-scale production of high bandwidth memory (HBM) 4. Researcher Chae Min Sook at Korea Investment & Securities stated, “The supply shortage will intensify in the second half of this year and next year,” adding that “the company's strong fundamentals are being proven through performance.”

On the other hand, BNK Investment & Securities lowered its target price from 1.85 million won to 1.48 million won on July 29, reflecting concerns over a potential supply glut due to competitive new capacity additions by memory manufacturers. Researcher Lee Min Hee of BNK Investment & Securities said, “Hyperscalers are shifting their AI equipment investments to maximize cost-effectiveness, and most of this year’s planned investments rely on borrowing. With rising interest rates and instability in funding markets, concerns over financing are escalating.”

Hyundai Mobis, with the second-largest target price deviation, was given a target price hike by KB Securities, which raised it from 750,000 won to 1.2 million won on June 2, reflecting the monopolistic value of supplying actuators for Boston Dynamics’ “Atlas” commercialization and the expansion of group market share. In contrast, Shin Young Securities maintained its target price at 530,000 won on July 27, highlighting cost pressures in the module business unit due to rising semiconductor prices and the impact of a fire at the company’s India plant.

For Samsung Electronics, which ranked third in price deviation, Korea Investment & Securities raised its target price from 590,000 won to 650,000 won on July 31, citing second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations and the transition to a “contract-based memory business” through multi-year contracts with global hyperscalers. Researcher Chae said, “Multi-year contracts will result in investments conducted in line with customer demand and help avoid supply gluts that repeatedly occurred in previous cycles.”

Conversely, BNK Investment & Securities pointed out the growing cost burden from performance-based bonuses in the second half of the year and continued losses in the IT and consumer electronics (DX) businesses during its July 30 report. Reflecting concerns that the memory business has peaked, it slashed its target price from 430,000 won to 300,000 won. Researcher Lee noted, “Despite a slowdown in demand, memory manufacturers are announcing massive new investments in anticipation of long-term demand, raising the risk of future oversupply.”

For Samsung Electro-Mechanics, which ranked fourth in target price deviation, Kyobo Securities maintained its target price at 3 million won on July 31, noting that the company’s business portfolio is pivoting from a smartphone-focused, highly cyclical components maker to a company focused on AI servers and automotive electronics, driving structural growth. The same day, Samsung Securities raised its target price from 1 million won to 1.4 million won, citing improved second-quarter results and better profitability in next-generation multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) and substrates.

For Hyundai Motor, ranked fifth in deviation, KB Securities maintained its target price at 1.2 million won on June 15, pointing to the advantage of being an early leader in the industrial humanoid market with Boston Dynamics' mass-production robot “Atlas.” In contrast, Yuanta Securities lowered its target price from 690,000 won to 570,000 won on July 24, arguing that the stock’s price surge on robotics expectations is difficult to justify with its high target price-earnings ratio (PER), and citing lingering uncertainties in the global automobile market.

For Ecopro BM, which recorded the largest gap on the KOSDAQ, DS Investment & Securities maintained its target price at 300,000 won on July 1, focusing on the fact that 64% of the 1.2 trillion won rights offering proceeds would be used to acquire a stake in Indonesia’s BNSI nickel smelter. However, on August 5, BNK Investment & Securities warned of a loss of momentum due to stagnant North American electric vehicle demand and declining European shipments, further pointing to share dilution and high valuation pressure from the rights offering and slashing its target price from 180,000 won to 100,000 won.

PSK, with the second-largest KOSDAQ deviation, saw KB Securities initiate coverage with a target of 280,000 won, expecting to benefit from increased investment by global semiconductor customers. New equipment sales are expected to drive performance growth, and the company is projected to achieve record-high results this year. Hana Securities noted that investments by memory and foundry semiconductor manufacturers would accelerate next year rather than this year, raising its target price from 128,000 won to 160,000 won.

On the 10th, employees were monitoring the stock market and exchange rates in the dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. On this day, the KOSPI opened at 6,300, up 0.7% from the previous trading day, and the KOSDAQ started at 807.66, rising 8.85 points (1.11%) and further expanding its gains. Photo by Jo Yongjun

Meanwhile, on this day, the KOSPI opened at 6,306.33, up 0.76% from the previous trading day, and as of 9:50 a.m., was trading at 6,324.47, up 1.05%. At the same time, the KOSDAQ was trading at 838.07, up 4.91%. A “sidecar” (temporary suspension of quotations) was activated on the KOSDAQ during trading due to aggressive buying.

Last weekend, all three major indexes of the New York Stock Exchange closed higher. Paradoxically, risk appetite revived as U.S. employment data was reported to have worsened. On August 7 (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 54,036.93, up 151.83 points (0.28%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 ended at 7,757.64, up 47.68 points (0.62%), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,690.62, up 342.26 points (1.30%).

Jiyoung Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, noted, “Since the end of last month, the earnings reports of semiconductor names like Microsoft (MS), Amazon, AMD, and SanDisk have alleviated much of the uncertainty surrounding AI demand and profitability.” She added, “The upcoming earnings releases this week are likely to ease concerns regarding the memory industry having peaked.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.