"SK hynix: 1.48 Million Won vs. 4.7 Million Won—Why Target Prices Diverge More Than Twofold for the Same Stock"

Diverging Outlooks Amid Extreme Volatility
SK hynix: 1.48 Million Won vs 4.7 Million Won
"HBM, AI Momentum" vs "Peak-Out Concerns"

As the roller coaster ride in the domestic stock market continues, there has been a trend of target prices for the same stocks diverging by as much as several times. This phenomenon is interpreted as the result of growing differences in outlook and profit estimates among securities firms, as market volatility has reached its peak.

According to financial information provider FnGuide on August 10, a review of analyst reports on the top 20 KOSPI and KOSDAQ stocks by market capitalization published over the past two months (June 1 to August 6) showed that SK hynix had the largest target price deviation (a gap of 217.6% between the highest and lowest targets).

For the KOSPI, Hyundai Mobis (126.4%), Samsung Electronics (116.7%), Samsung Electro-Mechanics (114.3%), Hyundai Motor (110.5%), Naver (87.5%), HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (80.0%), Samsung Life Insurance (70.5%), Samsung C&T (66.7%), and KB Financial Group (66.3%) followed in order. In the KOSDAQ, Ecopro BM showed the largest deviation at 200.0%. This was followed by PSK (75.0%), Robotis (43.8%), Pharmaresearch (35.0%), and Alteogen (28.9%).

For SK hynix, which had the widest target price range on the KOSPI, securities firms showed markedly divergent outlooks. Korea Investment & Securities raised its target price from 3.8 million won to 4.7 million won on July 30, citing the ongoing rise in memory prices and the full-scale mass production of high-bandwidth memory (HBM)4. Researcher Chae Min Sook at Korea Investment & Securities said, "The supply shortage will intensify in the second half of this year and into next year," adding, "Solid fundamentals are being demonstrated through performance."

By contrast, BNK Investment & Securities lowered its target price from 1.85 million won to 1.48 million won on July 29, reflecting concerns about a shift to oversupply due to competitive capacity expansion by manufacturers. Researcher Lee Min-hee at BNK Investment & Securities commented, "Hyperscalers are shifting their AI facility investment strategies toward better cost-effectiveness, and most of the planned investment this year relies on borrowing, raising concerns about fundraising given rising interest rates and instability in funding markets."

In the case of Hyundai Mobis, which had the second largest deviation, KB Securities set its target price at 1.2 million won (up from 750,000 won) on June 2, citing the exclusive supply value of actuators following the commercialization of Boston Dynamics' 'Atlas' and an expanded market share for the group. However, Shin Young Securities maintained its previous target price of 530,000 won in a July 27 report, highlighting cost burdens in the module business due to rising semiconductor prices and the aftermath of a plant fire in India.

For Samsung Electronics, which had the third highest deviation, Korea Investment & Securities raised its target price to 650,000 won from 590,000 won on July 31, citing second-quarter earnings beats and a shift to "order-based memory business" through multi-year contracts with global hyperscalers. Researcher Chae noted, "Multi-year contracts mean investment is carried out based on customer demand, reducing the likelihood of oversupply repetitions seen in past cycles."

Conversely, BNK Investment & Securities lowered its target from 430,000 won to 300,000 won on July 30, pointing to cost burdens related to performance-based bonuses in the second half and continued losses in the IT and home appliance (DX) business segment. The firm also cited concerns that the memory business may have passed its peak. Researcher Lee observed, "Despite weakening demand trends, chipmakers continue to announce large-scale capacity expansion plans, expecting long-term demand, which heightens concerns about a turnaround to oversupply in the future."

For Samsung Electro-Mechanics, which had the fourth largest deviation, Kyobo Securities on July 31 maintained its target price at 3 million won, stating that its business portfolio is shifting from being a cyclical smartphone component maker to a company undergoing structural growth centered on AI servers and automotive electronics. On the same day, Samsung Securities raised its target price from 1 million won to 1.4 million won, citing second-quarter results and improved profitability in next-generation multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) and substrate segments.

For Hyundai Motor, which ranked fifth, KB Securities maintained its target price at 1.2 million won on June 15, emphasizing the value of securing a leading position in the industrial humanoid market with the mass-produced version of Boston Dynamics' robot 'Atlas' as a key growth driver. In contrast, Yuanta Securities cut its target from 690,000 won to 570,000 won on July 24, saying that the sharp rise in stock price due to robotics expectations does not justify a high target price-to-earnings ratio (PER), and citing lingering uncertainties in the global finished car market.

For Ecopro BM, which had the largest deviation on the KOSDAQ, DS Investment & Securities maintained its target price at 300,000 won on July 1, highlighting that 64% of the 1.2 trillion won rights offering proceeds would be used to acquire a stake in the BNSI nickel smelter in Indonesia. However, BNK Investment & Securities on August 5 warned of an earnings momentum vacuum due to stagnant electric vehicle demand in North America and slowing shipments to Europe. The firm also pointed to dilution from the rights offering and heavy valuation burdens, slashing its target from 180,000 won to 100,000 won.

For PSK, which had the second largest deviation, KB Securities initiated coverage with a target price of 280,000 won, expecting the company to benefit from aggressive facility investments by global semiconductor clients. KB Securities projected that new equipment sales will drive earnings growth, and forecasted record-high results for the year. Hana Securities raised its target price from 128,000 won to 160,000 won, expecting investments by memory and foundry companies to ramp up next year rather than this year.

On the 10th, employees were monitoring the stock market and exchange rates in the dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. On that day, the KOSPI started at 6,300, up 0.7% from the previous trading day, and the KOSDAQ opened at 807.66, rising 8.85 points (1.11%), with gains expanding. Photo by Jo Yongjun

Meanwhile, on this day, the KOSPI opened at 6,306.33, up 0.76% from the previous trading day, and as of 9:50 a.m., it was up 1.05% at 6,324.47. At the same time, the KOSDAQ was trading at 838.07, up 4.91%. In the KOSDAQ market, the "sidecar" (temporary halt of order acceptance) mechanism was also triggered intra-day.

The three major US stock indices ended higher last weekend. Investors showed a paradoxical increase in risk appetite after US employment data came in weaker than expected. On August 7 (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 54,036.93, up 151.83 points (0.28%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 rose 47.68 points (0.62%) to close at 7,757.64, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 342.26 points (1.30%) to 26,690.62.

Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, noted, "It is notable that since the end of last month, earnings results of semiconductor stocks such as Microsoft, Amazon, AMD, and SanDisk have alleviated much of the uncertainty about AI demand and profitability." He added, "Earnings announcements scheduled this week are likely to ease concerns about a memory peak-out (market top)."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.