"Even With a U.S.-Iran Hormuz Agreement, the IRGC Could Break It"

WSJ: Mediators Express Concerns Over Implementation of Agreement

Ongoing Standoff Between Iranian Negotiators and Hardliners

As negotiations between the United States and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz near their conclusion, mediating countries have reportedly expressed concerns that a final agreement may ultimately fall through. Fears are mounting that the agreement may not be fully implemented, as the influence of Iran’s diplomatic negotiation team is weakening, while the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is gaining greater sway.

"IRGC Demands Explicit Statement of Iranian Control in Agreement"

A woman from Iran is waving the national flag in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on the 4th (local time). Photo by AP Yonhap News

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on August 6 (local time), citing officials from mediating countries, the Iranian negotiating team accepted a plan to divide the Strait of Hormuz into an entry channel along the Iranian coast and an exit channel along the Omani coast. However, the IRGC complicated the negotiations by insisting that Iran’s control and economic interests be clearly stipulated in the agreement. The IRGC is reported to demand explicit authority to levy transit fees, assurance of the lifting of the U.S. oil sanctions, and guaranteed removal of the blockade.

Mediators, as reported by the WSJ, stated that although the Iranian negotiating team is pushing for an agreement to alleviate economic hardship, their actual power to enforce such an accord remains limited. Furthermore, the team reportedly conveyed their view that if the IRGC deems the terms insufficient and leverages domestic support, it could resume attacks on ships.

As a result, mediators have reportedly broadened the scope of negotiations from the original aim of normalizing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to include economic support measures, such as sanctions relief and the unfreezing of assets outlined in the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) that was suspended in June.

Repeatedly Failed Agreements... Standoff Between Hardliners and Negotiators

Deceased former Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Photo by AP Yonhap News

The WSJ analyzed that the persistent failure of agreements over the more than five months of war can be attributed to the power struggle between hardliners and moderates within Iran. While Iran seeks to balance economic recovery, resistance to the U.S., and retribution for wartime damages, actual control lies with the hardliners.

Moderates, such as Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, have come under heavy attack from the country’s hardline conservative bloc. The hardline daily Kayhan criticized the Hormuz agreement as "giving the enemy an escape route," and some lawmakers are even moving to impeach Minister Araqchi.

It is particularly observed that the influence of the hardliners has grown as the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has hardly made any public appearances and is not mediating internal conflicts. While his deceased father, Ali Khamenei, acted as an arbiter among various factions, Mojtaba, despite having ultimate authority over diplomacy and security, is not fulfilling that mediating role.

Meanwhile, President Masoud Pezeshkian is appealing for an urgent diplomatic resolution to the economic crisis. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also underscored the need to ease sanctions in a state-run television interview, remarking, "When I see people opposing negotiations, I wonder what kind of world they are living in."

Meanwhile, the Associated Press analyzed that U.S. President Donald Trump may ultimately find some degree of compromise with Iran unavoidable in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite U.S. airstrikes, Iran retains the capability to attack ships passing through the strait, the report noted.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.