[Click eStock] "SpaceX Expected to See High Share Price Volatility Through December"

On August 6, Samsung Securities projected that SpaceX will experience heightened share price volatility until December, citing the full-scale expiry of its lock-up period.

Junkyu Park, a researcher at Samsung Securities, stated, "SpaceX is currently trading at a 12-month forward price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of 28.1 times, but since the IPO took place just a month ago, the market is still evaluating its appropriate valuation. With the large-scale lock-up expiration set to commence in earnest this week, share price volatility is expected to remain high through December."

SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings this year exceeded market expectations. Park noted, "Second-quarter sales reached $7.81 billion, an increase of 91.9% year-on-year, beating consensus estimates by 14.5%. All business divisions continued to grow, but most notably, sales from the artificial intelligence (AI) division surged 247.5% to $2.56 billion." Operating losses narrowed significantly to $140 million, both compared to the previous quarter and year-on-year. Park explained, "This was primarily due to a sharp improvement in the profitability of the AI division. As a result, quarterly earnings per share (EPS) recorded a loss of $0.09, which substantially outperformed the consensus loss estimate of $0.22."

However, capital expenditures (CAPEX) jumped sharply, worsening cash flow. In the second quarter, total CAPEX reached $18.37 billion—45.1% higher than the consensus estimate of $12.66 billion. Park analyzed, "Of this, CAPEX for the AI division totaled $15.83 billion, accounting for 86.2% of the total. As large-scale CAPEX continued, free cash flow (FCF) recorded an outflow of $25.01 billion, indicating a significant deterioration."

While growth has been demonstrated, Park stated that the key issue is recouping CAPEX. He said, "It is positive that strong revenue growth was achieved across all business divisions, but, since CAPEX amounts consistently exceeded quarterly sales throughout the year, the company’s ability to recoup these investments will be the main factor for investment decisions."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.