Super Typhoon 'Dolphin' Intensifies and Moves North... Close Watch on Potential Impact for Jeju and the Korean Peninsula

Super Typhoon to Reach 'Intensity 5' by July 31

Sustained Winds of 55 Meters Per Second Expected

Pressure System Alignment Over the Weekend a Key Variable

Typhoon No. 13 'Dolphin,' which developed over the sea east of Guam and is moving northward, is forecast to intensify into a 'super typhoon' with maximum sustained winds of 55 meters per second starting July 31. With this development, meteorological authorities and domestic and international numerical forecast models are closely monitoring whether it will have a direct impact on Jeju and the Korean Peninsula after next weekend, depending on the arrangement of the pressure system with the North Pacific High currently covering the peninsula.

Typhoon No. 13 'Dolphin' Predicted Path. Screenshot from the Korea Meteorological Administration website

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration and weather data analysis on July 29, as of 3 a.m. that day, Typhoon 'Dolphin' was moving west-northwest at a speed of 16 kilometers per hour over waters approximately 2,720 kilometers east of Guam.

Currently, the typhoon is maintaining 'Intensity 3' strength, with a central pressure of 950 hPa (hectopascal), maximum sustained winds at the center of 43 meters per second, and a gale radius of 320 kilometers. However, as it passes through waters with high sea surface temperatures, it is expected to rapidly intensify, developing into an 'Intensity 5' super typhoon with a central pressure of 915 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 55 meters per second (198 kilometers per hour) by July 31.

Afterward, analysis suggests the typhoon will reach waters about 1,610 kilometers southeast of Tokyo, Japan, by the morning of August 3.

Based on a review of major domestic and international weather prediction models and media reports, it appears that the extent of the North Pacific High—which continues to expand its influence—will be the decisive variable in determining the track of Typhoon 'Dolphin.'

Major overseas numerical forecast models, including 'Windy.com' based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), predict that the typhoon will likely be blocked by the wall of the North Pacific High, which is firmly established over the Korean Peninsula, and may make landfall in China after passing through the seas near Okinawa, Japan, around August 7, bypassing the peninsula.

The northward movement of Typhoon No. 13 'Dolphin' is the greatest variable and a significant disaster risk, as it could disrupt the prolonged, intense heatwave high pressure over Jeju and the Korean Peninsula.

Because the typhoon's strength is expected to be very powerful, whether it will stimulate the peninsula's pressure system to bring rains that ease tropical nights and the heatwave, or cause damage from strong winds and high waves, will hinge on the contraction or expansion range of the North Pacific High. This weekend is seen as a turning point in determining the impact on the Korean Peninsula.

An official from the Jeju Regional Meteorological Administration stated, "At this point, it is difficult to definitively say whether Typhoon 'Dolphin' will enter the Korean Peninsula or mitigate the heatwave," adding, "Once the interaction with the surrounding pressure systems around the peninsula becomes clearer over the weekend, we will be able to make a more precise assessment of the potential impacts on Jeju as well as the Korean Peninsula."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.