The United States Faces Missile Shortages... Is It Ready for a Prolonged War? [Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club]

CSIS Analysis: Over 30 Percent of Tomahawk Inventory Expended
Funding and Production Time Hurdles for Missile Replenishment

The U.S. Central Command announced on the social media platform X on the 19th that it conducted eight consecutive nights of airstrikes in Iran as of the 18th local time. Photo by U.S. Central Command, screenshot from X. Yonhap News

The United States is facing an emergency. As the war with Iran drags on and allied countries continue to provide missile support, U.S. ammunition stockpiles are running dangerously low.

According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Tomahawk missiles have a range of 1,600 kilometers. They are widely used in the initial phase of operations because they can precisely strike command facilities and heavily protected bunkers without exposing manned aircraft to enemy air defenses. It is estimated that the United States used over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles during the Iran war, which began in February this year, within just two months. Over the 39 days leading up to the unstable ceasefire in April, the U.S. struck more than 13,000 targets inside Iran. As a result, the U.S. used over 30% of the roughly 3,000 Tomahawk missiles it had in stock prior to the conflict.

Tomahawk and PAC-3 Stockpiles Depleted in the Iran War

The same goes for the Patriot (PAC-3) missiles. Out of the 2,300 interceptors estimated to be in U.S. inventory before the war, the military launched about 1,200—approximately half. These were used to intercept more than 1,700 Iranian drones and ballistic missiles. Concerning the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, the U.S. used 190 to 290 out of an estimated 360 missiles that were in stock before the war.

Replenishing Stockpiles Will Take Over Four Years

The main obstacles are cost and production time. Each Tomahawk missile costs over $2.6 million. The price of a single PAC-3 interceptor is about $3.9 million. An astronomical amount of funding is needed to replenish these missile stockpiles. Secretary of Defense Hegses also appealed for urgent additional funding at a Senate Appropriations Committee meeting on the 21st, warning that a "significant shortage" could occur if extra resources are not secured.

Even if the U.S. government secures the necessary funding, time remains a critical hurdle. From order to initial delivery, it takes more than 36 months. After receiving the initial batch, it takes an additional 12 months to deliver the remaining contract volume. Including administrative procedures, the total process may take up to 52 months. Considering that some of the missiles currently being delivered to the U.S. military were purchased with funds secured in 2023, it is estimated that stockpiles depleted during the Iran war will not be restored to previous levels until 2031.

U.S. allies have also become increasingly anxious about the missile shortage. Lockheed Martin plans to increase its annual PAC-3 production from the current 600 units to 2,000 units by 2030. However, the U.S. and its allies will inevitably be in competition for limited supplies. Eighteen countries besides the U.S. also operate the Patriot system, and Ukraine received support totaling more than 600 interceptors from the United States and its allies during the war.

Allied Countries Unable to Secure Missile Support Pursue Domestic Development

Ukraine is the most urgent among the allied countries. The country has moved to form a coalition of nine European countries for ballistic missile defense against Russia. The project is known as 'Freyja.' Freyja is a low-cost ballistic missile and drone interception system developed by the Ukrainian defense company Fire Point. It is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles in their terminal phase at altitudes between 20 and 25 kilometers and succeeded in its first test launch in June this year. The system is also inexpensive, costing one-fifth the price of a single PAC-3 interceptor. President Zelenskyy has highlighted that European defense firms can develop the system in a modular fashion. Reportedly, companies such as Eurosam, Leonardo, Thales, and Saab are among the twelve participating in the project.

There are, however, differences in performance. The U.S. Patriot and South Korea’s medium-range surface-to-air guided weapon system Cheongung-II intercept ballistic missiles by direct collision. In contrast, the interceptors used by the Freyja system reach close to the target and then employ a proximity fuse to destroy enemy missiles with explosive fragments; as a result, their interception rate is lower.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.