40 Trillion Won Wagered on World Cup Outcomes... Anything Goes in Crypto Prediction Markets [Bitcoin Now]

Prediction Markets Rival Opinion Polls in Accuracy
Strong Gambling Concerns Prompt Global Regulatory Crackdown
South Korea Poised to Launch Domestic Regulations Soon

Overseas blockchain-based prediction market platforms, where users bet money on specific future events and trade on probabilities, are growing rapidly. These platforms are receiving attention as indicators that reflect real-time public sentiment on a wide range of issues, including politics, geopolitical conflicts, and sports. However, critics argue that they are essentially equivalent to "online gambling."

According to Koscom on July 28, the total trading volume of major prediction market platforms is projected to reach around $70 billion this year, representing a 100% increase compared to the previous year. As of January, the combined highest weekly trading volume reached approximately $5.23 billion. The number of installations for Polymarket, a leading platform, surged by 1,200% from 30,000 in May last year to over 400,000 in May this year.

There is a growing assessment that prediction markets are expanding the subject of finance from traditional tangible assets to future information and probabilities, thereby emerging as a key growth engine within the virtual asset ecosystem. Koscom stated, "Prediction markets provide a different mechanism from traditional finance by pricing the occurrence of specific events in terms of probabilities and allowing them to be traded," adding that "they are becoming a new system for generating information that quantifies uncertainties in overall policy and the economy through collective intelligence, going beyond simple speculation."

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market designed to allow the trading of tokens in the form of "Yes" and "No" outcomes for specific future events. Users predict the likelihood of an event by buying or selling the corresponding tokens, and the token prices formed through market transactions reflect the real-time probability as judged by participants. When the outcome of the event is finally determined, tokens with correct predictions are settled at $1 each, while incorrect tokens lose all value and are worth zero.

This entire process of trading and settlement is handled automatically through the Polygon blockchain and smart contracts (conditional automatic execution programs). Final outcome verification is also achieved through public data and oracle systems, creating a transparent market structure free from arbitrary intervention by central operators. Kalshi is another prediction market platform where results of specific political, social, and economic events are traded as "Yes" or "No" contracts.

2026 North and Central America World Cup Korea vs Mexico Match Prediction Betting Results. Column

Prediction betting sites are increasingly penetrating everyday areas such as sports and elections. In fact, the cumulative trading volume for predicting the winner of the 2026 North and Central America World Cup on Polymarket reached $4.3 billion (approximately KRW 6.3 trillion). Polymarket drew attention again by correctly predicting the winners for the semifinals, final matches, and ultimately Spain’s victory. During the World Cup period on Kalshi, cumulative trading reached $27 billion (about KRW 40 trillion), with 3 million users. The cumulative trading volume for the Korea vs. Mexico group stage match on June 19 amounted to $135.68 million.

The platform also demonstrated high predictive accuracy in the local elections held on June 3, outperforming opinion polls. Polymarket predicted the victors accurately for most regions in the elections for provincial and metropolitan mayors. It correctly identified Busan, Daegu, North Jeolla, and Gangwon as competitive regions and further outperformed terrestrial exit poll results, which projected the Democratic Party to have an advantage in Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon, South Gyeongsang, Ulsan, Daejeon, Sejong, South Chungcheong, North Chungcheong, and Jeju. However, for the most closely watched races—Mayor of Seoul and Governor of North Jeolla—the predictions of the betting markets were the opposite of the actual outcomes.

Right before the betting closed for the Seoul mayorship race, Polymarket recorded 78% probability for Jeong Wono, the Democratic Party candidate, and 23% for Oh Sehoon, the People Power Party candidate. However, vote counting showed Oh (49.15%) surpassing Jeong (48.13%). Similarly, for the North Jeolla Governor race, the platform assessed Kim Kwan Young, an independent candidate, at a 74% chance of victory and Lee Wontaek of the Democratic Party at 27%, but Lee (51.22%) defeated Kim (41.78%).

Despite such high prediction accuracy, the prediction markets remain embroiled in controversy over their gambling-like nature. Accordingly, governments worldwide are tightening supervision and regulations on prediction betting sites. On July 16, France blocked access to Polymarket, citing concerns about potential price manipulation. In May, Spain temporarily suspended the operation of platforms like Polymarket. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a draft regulation last month to strengthen federal oversight.

In South Korea, the Korea Communications Standards Commission has begun considering regulations for Polymarket. The Commission stated, "We have decided to give the opportunity for an opinion statement to thoroughly assess the legality of Polymarket and the manner of its service operation," adding that "a comprehensive review of statements and related materials will be conducted before a final decision is made on whether to issue corrective demands."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.