More Determined Than His Father: U.S. Says Iran's New Supreme Leader Committed to Nuclear Weapons Development

Analysis of Intercepted Communications and Public Statements: "More Proactive Than His Father"
Signs of Relocation of Centrifuges to Underground Facilities Detected

U.S. intelligence authorities have assessed that Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is more actively pursuing nuclear weapons development compared to his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

On July 24 local time, The New York Times (NYT) reported, citing officials briefed by American intelligence agencies, that U.S. intelligence believes Mojtaba Khamenei, along with the newly formed hardline Iranian leadership following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, is determined to aggressively advance Iran’s development of advanced nuclear weapons.

According to the report, the U.S. has so far analyzed that Iran has long sought the capability to build nuclear weapons, but former supreme leader Ali Khamenei had maintained a cautious approach toward nuclear development. In 2003, Khamenei had issued a religious edict (fatwa) prohibiting the production and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), including nuclear arms.

A photo of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (left), Iran's supreme leader, and his predecessor Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is displayed on a street in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Photo by Yonhap News

However, based on intercepted communications obtained before the conflict and Mojtaba Khamenei’s public statements, U.S. intelligence agencies now assess that he holds a more favorable stance towards nuclear weapons development than his father.

In particular, the United States believes Mojtaba Khamenei is less interested in developing early-stage nuclear weapons with a yield similar to the Hiroshima atomic bomb, and is instead more focused on developing miniaturized thermonuclear warheads (hydrogen bombs) that could be mounted on long-range ballistic missiles.

However, U.S. officials stated that there is, as of yet, no clear evidence that Iran has fully restarted its nuclear weapons development program. Instead, they have observed movements aimed at safeguarding nuclear facilities, such as relocating centrifuges needed for uranium enrichment to an underground installation in central Iran known as Pickaxe Mountain.

Pickaxe Mountain is an underground facility being constructed near the Natanz nuclear site. It is located at a depth of 90 to 140 meters underground, making it difficult to destroy using conventional airstrikes.

The NYT analyzed that this assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies could be used as a new justification by the Trump Administration to intensify military pressure on Iran. Within Iran as well, hardliners appear to be gaining support for the view that only nuclear weapons can deter external attacks, especially in the wake of consecutive U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.