Hong Junpyo Predicts Oh Sehoon Guilty Verdict... "High Likelihood of Overturn and Remand for Kim Keonhee"

Outlook After Oh Sehoon's 10 Million Won Fine in Initial Ruling
Divergent Lower Court Decisions Emerge as Key Variable

Former Daegu Mayor Hong Joonpyo predicted that there is a high possibility that Kim Gunhee's case involving the alleged ‘receipt of a free opinion poll from Myung Taekyun’—which was transferred to the Supreme Court en banc—will be overturned and remanded with a guilty verdict. On July 23, through his social media (SNS), Hong contended, “It appears that the transfer of Kim Gunhee’s case involving Myung Taekyun to the full bench signals a strong likelihood that this part will be overturned and remanded as guilty.”

Kim Gunhee, who was indicted and detained on charges including stock manipulation of Deutsch Motors, interference in candidate selection by Myung Taekyun, and allegations of solicitation and bribery involving the Unification Church, is attending the final hearing on charges of violating the Capital Markets Act at the Seoul Central District Court in Seocho-gu, Seoul on the 3rd. Photo by Joint Press Corps

On this day, the Supreme Court referred Kim’s case—concerning alleged violations of the Capital Markets Act and the Political Funds Act—to the Grand Bench and postponed the final appeal verdict originally scheduled for July 24. The new sentencing date will be set at a later time. Kim has been acquitted in both the first and second trials on the charge of having received opinion poll results from Myung at no cost.

However, in other recent cases related to Myung’s opinion polls, guilty verdicts have been delivered. On July 22, the Seoul Central District Court sentenced Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon to a fine of 10 million won for commissioning an opinion poll from Myung and arranging for the costs to be paid through a sponsor. Oh has appealed the verdict.

Hong pointed out that the court in Oh's case selectively accepted only those portions of Myung’s testimony backed by objective evidence, rather than trusting all of his statements. He added, “It seems the court recognized only five out of ten instances as guilty based on corroborating evidence, which appears to be a prudent ruling with the appeals court and Supreme Court in mind. Usually, when a person’s statements lack credibility, they are entirely dismissed, but this time, the court compared them with other evidence and made selective judgments.”

Citizens are watching the live broadcast at the Seoul Station waiting room in Yongsan-gu, Seoul on the 22nd, the day of the first trial verdict on Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's 'alleged illicit payment for public opinion survey costs.' On this day, Mayor Oh Se-hoon was sentenced to a fine of 10 million won in the first trial. If the sentence is finalized, he will be stripped of his mayoral position. Photo by Jo Yongjun

Indeed, the court in Mayor Oh's case stated that it was difficult to trust all of Myung’s testimony, but acknowledged the credibility of those parts that matched objective evidence. In contrast, the first-instance court in Kim’s case found Myung to have exaggerated his abilities and displayed delusional behavior, leading them to not accept the credibility of his key statements. The outcome also differed in the case involving former President Yoon Seok-yeol; in Yoon’s first trial, the court determined there was an implied agreement between Myung’s provision of opinion poll results and the nomination of former assemblyman Kim Youngsun, sentencing Yoon to two years in prison.

Previously, Hong had also predicted a guilty verdict in Mayor Oh's case, stating, “It will be difficult to escape.” After Oh’s first trial verdict, he advised that the appeal strategy would have to be adjusted. When a not-guilty verdict was delivered for Kim Gunhee’s charges related to Myung Taekyun in January, Hong was critical of the court’s decision, describing it as “a difficult ruling to understand.”

Since lower court rulings on Kim Gunhee’s charges related to Myung Taekyun have been inconsistent, significant attention is now on whether the Supreme Court en banc will set clear standards for the credibility of Myung’s testimony and whether receiving a free opinion poll constitutes a political donation. However, since the Supreme Court has not disclosed the specific rationale for the referral, merely being referred to the Grand Bench cannot be taken as an indication of a guilty verdict.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.