After Hormuz, Red Sea Also Faces Blockade Threat... "Prolonged Crisis Could Trigger Global Recession"

Tensions Between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis Undermine Alternative Export Routes
Prolonged Disruptions at Both Key Straits Raise Fears of Global Recession

As Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts crude oil exports from the Middle East, reports indicate that even the Red Sea—a key alternative route—is now under threat. Concerns are mounting that if both the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which serves as a gateway to the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, are simultaneously blocked, it could deliver a severe shock to the global oil supply chain.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the entrance of the Red Sea. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on July 17 (local time), Saudi Arabia has been transporting crude oil from its eastern oil fields to the western port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast via pipelines since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Through this arrangement, Saudi Arabia has managed to maintain exports at around 4.6 million barrels per day, down from about 7.3 million barrels per day before the war.

However, the security of this route has also become uncertain as the ceasefire between the Houthis—a pro-Iranian armed group from Yemen that controls areas near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden—and Saudi Arabia appears unstable.

Although Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have maintained a de facto ceasefire since 2022, they have recently resumed airstrikes against each other. On July 13, after Saudi and Yemeni government forces bombed Sana'a International Airport—under Houthi control—the Houthis responded by launching ballistic missiles and suicide drones targeting Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia.

If the conflict escalates, there is a possibility that the Houthis could resume attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea or target Saudi ports and oil facilities. In such a scenario, both major oil transport routes in the Middle East would be shaken simultaneously, as the crisis would coincide with Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Countries are currently releasing strategic reserves and commercial inventories to compensate for the supply shortage, but if the blockade persists, these measures could soon reach their limits. London-based economic analysis firm Capital Economics predicted that if the two straits remain inoperable for an extended period or if Saudi pipelines and port facilities sustain significant damage, the global economy could fall into a recession.

However, some observers suggest that rather than launching a full-scale confrontation immediately, the Houthis will likely ratchet up tensions gradually to pressure Saudi Arabia. The aim would be to secure a more advantageous negotiating position—such as the resumption of operations at Sana'a Airport and the expansion of incoming supplies—during future talks.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.