"Possibility of Bet Manipulation": France Blocks Polymarket as Crackdowns Spread

Evidence of Bet Manipulation Using Insider Information Emerges
Regulatory Actions Spread from Europe to South Korea

France has blocked access to the "prediction market" site, Polymarket.

According to France24 on July 17 (local time), French regulatory authorities began blocking access to Polymarket the previous day, stating that the site not only causes significant losses for users but also that some bets could be subject to manipulation. Despite a ban implemented in 2024 on betting through French accounts, the number of visits to Polymarket from France has continued to rise, prompting authorities to take this additional measure. Officials noted, “The site promotes illegal gambling and real-time betting services,” and added, “Promoting unauthorized gambling sites constitutes a criminal offense.”

Prediction market betting sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi have generated profits by allowing the general public to place bets on sports events. However, recently they have evolved into platforms for online gambling based on shifts in the Ukraine war, the conflict in Iran, and key election outcomes in major countries. With growing suspicions of insider trading, these sites have also become a subject of worldwide social controversy.

This past April in France, a betting account was created based on weather forecasts, prompting the French meteorological agency to protest and request a police investigation after one of its observation devices was hacked and used for bet manipulation on Polymarket.

Bet manipulation is not an issue limited to France. On July 16, ABC and CNN, citing multiple sources, reported that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating Gabriel Perez, deputy presidential advisor and technology consultant, on allegations of insider trading on the prediction market, Kalshi. Perez was reported to have consistently bet in “mention markets,” where users wager on whether prominent figures such as President Trump and other celebrities would use certain phrases during their public statements. Essentially, he was able to profit easily in the mention markets by leveraging advance knowledge of the president’s remarks. It is reported that Perez earned around $100,000 (about 150 million won) from Kalshi.

In April, a U.S. military personnel was arrested on charges of earning approximately $400,000 (about 590 million won) on Polymarket by using classified information about an operation to oust the Venezuelan regime of Nicolás Maduro.

The Czech government also added Polymarket to its list of illegal online gaming sites and blocked access on July 13. In May, Spain also temporarily blocked access to both Polymarket and Kalshi, citing their provision of services without a gambling license, while Dutch regulators ordered Polymarket to cease operations. On July 6, South Korea's Broadcasting and Communications Review Committee (BCR) announced that, prior to deciding whether to take corrective measures against Polymarket, it would provide the operator with an opportunity to make a statement. The committee stated, “We have decided to allow a statement to thoroughly verify the legality of Polymarket and the manner in which its services are operated.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.