Trump’s "Strong Support" Hits Record Low at 15%... Core Base Weakens

Approval Rating Holds Steady at 37%
Economic Policy Support at 33%
68% Say "War Was Not Worth Fighting"
43% Report "Worse Off Than at Start of Trump's Term"
Midterms Loom as Challenge for Republican Party

The approval rating for U.S. President Donald Trump's administration remains in the 30% range, while the proportion of respondents who "strongly support" President Trump has dropped to a record low, according to a recent poll. Although there was little change in the overall approval rating, some analysts suggest that the solidarity among Trump’s core political base is weakening.

According to The Washington Post (WP) on July 16 (local time), a survey of 2,648 U.S. adults conducted by WP and polling agency Ipsos from July 8 to 13 found that 37% of respondents said they support President Trump's administration.

This is the same level as the survey conducted last April. The response rate of those opposed to Trump’s administration stood at 61%, showing no statistically significant change from the previous survey. Among registered voters, Trump’s approval rating was 40%.

However, the proportion of respondents who "strongly support" Trump’s administration reached a record low of 15% in the WP/Ipsos survey. This is a decrease of 4 percentage points from 19% in February.

Meanwhile, 22% of respondents said they "somewhat support" President Trump. As a result, this is the first time that the group of strong supporters among all those who support Trump’s administration accounts for less than half, according to WP. During Trump’s first term, about two-thirds of his supporters “strongly supported” his administration.

Support from independents also remained low. Among respondents who identified as independents, 26% said they support President Trump, and only 6% said they strongly support him. Meanwhile, 71% of independents opposed Trump’s administration.

Among Republican respondents, 81% supported President Trump. However, support among independents with Republican leanings dropped to 52%.

Trump recorded a support rate of 50% among adults in rural areas and 53% among white men without a college degree. The approval rating was 57% among white Catholic voters, and 70% among white evangelical Protestant voters.

However, among major demographic groups categorized by gender, age, education level, income, and race, support rates generally remained in the 30–40% range. Negative perceptions of the economy and the Iran war were identified as the main reasons dragging down overall support.

Only 33% of respondents said they support Trump’s economic policies. Approval rating for his response to the Iran war was even lower, at 29%. His immigration policy garnered 40% support, relatively higher than other areas, but still 10 percentage points lower than the 50% reached at the beginning of his second administration.

Some 43% of respondents said their own or their family’s financial situation has worsened compared to when President Trump resumed office. This is a 10 percentage point increase from the survey conducted in February. In a similar survey during Trump’s first term in 2018, only 13% said their situation had worsened since his inauguration.

The proportion of respondents who believed the U.S. economy would get worse in the next year was more than twice that of those who thought it would improve. Forty percent said they expected their and their family’s living standards to improve, while 59% said otherwise.

Sixty-six percent of respondents said it was difficult to afford groceries. This figure rose by 21 percentage points from 45% in the survey conducted in February before the Iran war began. Sentiment towards the Iran war was also negative: 68% said the war was not worth fighting, while only 28% believed it was justified.

Two-thirds of all respondents said they were not confident that U.S. military action and negotiations would prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

More than half of respondents said the U.S.'s global leadership has weakened since Trump took office. Twenty-nine percent said leadership had grown stronger, and 18% said it was about the same.

The Washington Post analyzed that while overall approval remains relatively stable at the 30% level, the waning enthusiasm among Trump’s core supporters could become a burden for the Republican Party heading into the midterm elections this November.

The Republican Party currently holds a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, but should negative sentiment surrounding the economy and the Iran war persist, the risk of losing congressional control could increase.

This survey was conducted online using Ipsos' KnowledgePanel platform. The margin of error for all respondents is ±1.9 percentage points, and ±2.2 percentage points for the 2,092 registered voters.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.